We are now in Week 11 of the college football season! The University of Nevada Wolf Pack will take on Mountain West rival San Diego State Aztecs in a battle for the top seed in the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. It's time to continue our college football odds with a Nevada-San Diego State prediction and pick.
The Wolf Pack are off to one of their best starts in years with a 7-2 record. Nevada hasn't won the Mountain West Conference since 2010, so it's been some time since they have been one of the better teams in the conference. The Pack are led by junior quarterback Carson Strong, who is having a stellar season. He's reached over 3,000 yards on the year and has 25 passing touchdowns to go along with it. Nevada is a passing team primarily, but do showcase a good enough run-game as well. They will now go up against a ranked opponent for the first time this season.
San Diego State displays one of the toughest defenses in the entire NCAA. They are ranked 9th in opponent yards per game at 299.9. They are also tied for 9th in opponent touchdowns on the season with just 18 alongside Michigan and North Carolina State. The defense is the main reason for their 8-1 record, as the offense isn't known for scoring many points. The SDSU offense averages 28 points per game, but the defense allows only 16.7 points per game and 4.3 yards per play. A dynamic Nevada offense going against one of the nation's top defenses will be a thriller to watch.
Here is how the bookmakers have set the Nevada-San Diego State odds for Saturday night.
College Football Odds: Nevada-San Diego State Odds
Nevada Wolf Pack: +2.5 (-102)
San Diego State Aztecs: -2.5 (-120)
Over: 44.5 (-112)
Under: 44.5 (-108)
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Why Nevada Could Cover The Spread
Nevada can cover this spread with their passing attack. The Pack are doing all the right things offensively to be successful in this conference. The Aztecs are one of the top defensive teams, so it won't be an easy task. Strong will need to continue his run of success and make sure the passing game works Saturday night. It's not going to be easy running the ball, so the passing attack is going to need to be on point.
Nevada is 6-3 against the spread this year and one of their two losses came within two points. This is a much-improved team from over the years and will make this difficult for SDSU to win. If the Nevada defense can stop the Aztec offense then this will be a close game in the fourth quarter.
Why San Diego State Could Cover The Spread
The Aztecs can cover this spread by sticking to their game plan and relying on the defense to shut down the opponent. SDSU does not have a passing game at all. QB Lucas Johnson leads the team with just 625 passing yards on the season. Over 2,500 less than Nevada's QB, Strong. The run game is what scores the points for the Aztecs. It's a combined effort between brother Greg and Chance Bell. Greg is the Starter and leads the team in every rushing category. If the Aztecs running game is on point, then they should have no problem winning this game.
SDSU is 5-3-1 against the spread this year. They find ways to win the game, however, so the team doesn't care who's favored and who isn't. SDSU's win over Utah came within two points and that is really the only time they played a close game besides the loss to Fresno State. You shouldn't feel concerned about taking the SDSU spread at all.
Final Nevada-San Diego State Prediction & Pick
I expect the Aztecs to win this game by at least a field goal, covering this spread. The defense is really dominant and that should be one of the deciding factors. The SDSU games aren't usually high-scoring, so if you are deciding between the over-under, the under seems to be the more likely option.
Final Nevada-San Diego State Pick: San Diego State -2.5 (-120)
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