The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Check out our college football odds series for our North Carolina Wake Forest prediction and pick.
The North Carolina Tar Heels and Wake Forest Demon Deacons scheduled games against each other in recent years which were technically nonconference games, meaning that they weren't counted in the final ACC football standings. This happened even though North Carolina and Wake Forest are neighboring conference schools. Why did this happen? The rotation-based schedule in the ACC did not have North Carolina and Wake Forest as regular opponents. Since these two schools are in separate ACC divisions, they don't play very often compared to other ACC schools. That's why they had to schedule “nonconference” games in order to meet on a more consistent basis. It's a weird thing to say for two schools which are in the same state and are part of the original ACC as it existed in the 1950s. The specific nature of the ACC schedule is to blame for this mess. This game, however, will be a conference game.
North Carolina might be the most pleasantly surprising team in the ACC this season. Duke has a case to make, but North Carolina did beat Duke head to head and is in line to make the ACC Championship Game. This is not something anyone expected before the season. Mario Cristobal's Miami team, Pat Narduzzi's defending ACC Coastal champion Pitt Panthers, and the Virginia Cavaliers were all getting more preseason buzz as potential division champions than North Carolina. It seemed that North Carolina's moment had passed, given that it had quarterback Sam Howell in the saddle last year with a lot of high-quality skill players alongside him. UNC utterly failed last season, and this year's defense didn't figure to be all that great … and it hasn't been.
Why is this team likely to win its division? Drake Maye.
The quarterback has been better in 2022 than Sam Howell ever was in 2021. Maye has made clutch play after clutch play in several UNC wins, including the shootout against Appalachian State in early September which helped set the right tone for the season. Maye trusts his talent and his teammates trust him. UNC has been able to win several games with comebacks, and it has been able to pull through in other tight games as well, all because its quarterback is able to take command in key moments, the Duke win being the foremost example.
Wake Forest has watched its dreams die over the past two weeks. An ugly loss to Louisville in which it committed six third-quarter turnovers (eight for the full game), followed by a loss to North Carolina State, destroyed Wake Forest's hopes of an Orange Bowl bid, which were very realistic before this two-game slide. Wake Forest had big ambitions for this season, given that star quarterback Sam Hartman was returning to school. Now that the team has taken two gut punches, can it rebound and salvage its season? A win over North Carolina would make this team feel really good. Can the Demon Deacons get off the canvas and respond on their home field?
Here are the North Carolina-Wake Forest NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: North Carolina-Wake Forest Odds
North Carolina Tar Heels: +4.5 (-118)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: -4.5 (-104)
Over: 77.5 (-105)
Under: 77.5 (-115)
Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread
Drake Maye is having a better year than Sam Hartman. No one expected it or predicted it, but that's why Carolina is likely to play in the ACC Championship Game and Wake Forest will go to a third-tier bowl game. Maye keeps making the biggest plays in the biggest moments, and that's a really good reason to think North Carolina will not only cover the spread, but win outright.
Why Wake Forest Could Cover the Spread
The Demon Deacons lost two straight games on the road. They have been away from home for several weeks and will gain a lot of energy from the home crowd in this game. This is a pride game for Wake Forest, and there's a burning desire to beat North Carolina regardless of the records or the circumstances. Sam Hartman will bounce back here.
Final North Carolina-Wake Forest Prediction & Pick
This game feels like a last-minute, last-possession game. That being the case, the team getting four and a half points is more likely to cover.
Final North Carolina-Wake Forest Prediction & Pick: North Carolina +4.5
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