The Penn State Nittany Lions are set to face the Michigan State Spartans this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our Penn State-Michigan State prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the odds for Penn State-Michigan State.
College Football odds: Penn State-Michigan State Odds
Penn State: -1.5 (-110)
Michigan State: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 52.5 (-110)
Under: 52.5 (-110)
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Why Penn State Could Cover the Spread
The Penn State Nittany Lions got off to a terrific start this season, winning their first five games. Since then, they have gone 2-4 and rank fourth in the Big Ten East. They are coming off a 28-0 win against Rutgers last week at home. The Nittany Lions totaled 407 yards of offense while holding the Scarlet Knights to 160 total yards. Penn State started freshman quarterback Christian Veilleux, who threw for 235 passing yards and three touchdowns. He gives Penn State fans something to be excited about moving forward. As a unit, the Nittany Lions average 25 points and 368.6 yards per game. Their best player on offense is Jahan Dotson, who has 83 catches for 1,045 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions rank 26th with 334.2 yards per game and allow the third-fewest points per game to opponents (15.4). They have the second-best red-zone scoring defense in the nation and give up the fifth-fewest yards per pass to opponents (5.6). Over their last six road games, the Nittany Lions are 5-1 against the spread. They are 9-3 against the spread in their previous 12 conference games as well.
Why Michigan State Could Cover the Spread
The Michigan State Spartans started the season winning their first eight games before losing to Purdue on the road. The Spartans have a 9-2 overall record and rank one spot higher than Penn State in the Big Ten – East. They are coming off a very embarrassing 56-7 loss to Ohio State last weekend. The Spartans' defense looked nonexistent as they allowed Ohio State to total 655 yards of offense, including 449 through the air. Ohio State dominated the time of possession (37:58) as Michigan State only had 12 total first downs in the game. They need to eliminate that game from their memories as they return home to play the rival Nittany Lions.
Offensively, the Spartans average 31.1 points on 413.7 yards per game. Quarterback Peyton Thorne has stepped up in a big way this year, throwing for 2,618 yards and 22 touchdowns. Running back Kenneth Walker III has dominated the run game with 1,498 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns.
Michigan State leads the nation in opponent rush play percentage (39.6%). They have a stout run defense, but their pass defense is concerning. The Spartans allow 360.6 passing yards per game to opponents. Michigan State is 3-0-2 against the spread in their last five home games and 7-2-2 against the spread in their previous eleven games.
Final Penn State-Michigan State Prediction & Pick
The Spartans have had a much better season so far and are playing their senior game at home in this matchup. They will be motivated to bounce back after that horrible loss at Ohio State. Penn State may be starting their freshman quarterback once again and it's unlikely he has another successful game, especially in a hostile environment. The Spartans should win this game outright and cover the spread.
FINAL PENN STATE-MICHIGAN STATE PICK: Michigan State +1.5
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