The Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to face the Baylor Bears this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our Texas Tech-Baylor prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Texas Tech-Baylor odds.
College Football odds: Texas Tech-Baylor Odds
Texas Tech: +14.5 (-118)
Baylor: -14.5 (-104)
Over: 51.5 (-110)
Under: 51.5 (-110)
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Why Texas Tech Could Cover the Spread
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 6-5 and ranked sixth in the Big 12. They have lost three of their last four games and face eighth-ranked Baylor on the road this weekend, so this is going to be a tough one. The Red Raiders were shut out last week, 23-0, by another top team in Oklahoma State. The Cowboys held the Texas Tech offense to 108 total yards and 10 first downs. Oklahoma State controlled the clock (36:58) and totaled 427 yards on offense. The Red Raiders don't face an easier opponent in Baylor this week, either, so they're going to have to figure out a way to put some points on the board.
The Red Raiders do average 30.8 points (42nd) and 415.2 yards per game (53rd) on the season, so they have had some offensive success. However, Texas Tech is starting freshman Donovan Smith at quarterback, and succeeding this will be an especially tall order for the youngster.
Defensively, the Red Raiders give up 33.6 points and 412.1 yards per game. Colin Schooler leads the Red Raiders with 88 tackles, while Tyree Wilson has five sacks this season. This defense isn't particularly stout, but it should be motivated for this showdown.
In their last eight meetings at Baylor, the Red Raiders are 6-2 against the spread. They are 5-0 against the spread in their previous five games, following an against-the-spread loss.
Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread
The Baylor Bears are having a very impressive season with a 9-2 record. They rank third in the Big 12 and will try to stay in the title hunt moving forward. The Bears beat the Kansas State Wildcats last week, 20-10. The Bears have won five of their previous six games, including four straight at home.
Offensively, Baylor averages 30.8 points (42nd) and 421.2 yards per game (46th). They rank 13th in the nation in yards per rush and 20th in rush play percentage (59.70%). Abram Smith leads the team with 185 carries for 1,249 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Trestan Ebner (710 rush yards, two TDs) and Taye McWilliams (181 yards, two TDs) have also been effective in the run game.
On the defensive end, Baylor will be facing a freshman QB. The Baylor defense is in the top 20 in opponent points per game (20.2) and opponent yards per game (355.0). They only gave up 10 points to Kansas State last week, while Texas Tech failed to get past the 35-yard line in the game versus Oklahoma State. The defense should be licking its chops for this matchup. Baylor is 5-1 against the spread in the last six games as a favorite.
Final Texas Tech-Baylor Prediction & Pick
This matchup is very unbalanced, as Baylor is the far better team on both sides of the ball. This would be a different outcome if Texas Tech had an experienced quarterback, yet they are starting the freshman in Donovan Smith, who was sacked five times last week. This season, the Bears will need to keep winning if they want a shot at the Big 12 title. They looked excellent last week against the Wildcats, and they should win this game comfortably. Texas Tech will have trouble defensively against the Bears, and this game could be over early. Baylor has covered in its last six games at home as well. Take the Bears to cover the spread.
Final Pick: Baylor Bears -14.5
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