If you played fantasy football at all during last year's 2020 campaign, you'd remember that Dak Prescott set the fantasy football world on fire for the first 5 weeks of the season, as he was on pace to shatter the all-time single-season passing yards record, before suffering a compound ankle fracture in a Week 5 contest with the New York Giants. As the Dallas Cowboys retain the same core of a star-studded offensive line, and a skill-position core rivaled only by the Kansas City Chiefs, drafting Dak early on is an enticing risk.

Though an injury early on in training camp (already?!) certainly has fantasy owners worried, the issue is nothing to be worried about long-term, per Pro Football Talk's Josh Alper. Pair that with the encouraging footage of Dak's already improved ankle mobility and return to throwing darts on the practice field, and there's reason for optimism, and even lofty expectations, for Dak heading into the 2021 NFL season.

2020 Fantasy Statistics

Though Dak Prescott's record-breaking pace of 371.2 passing yards per game was already mercurial on the surface, a closer look reveals that his performance in limited action last year was even better – earth-shattering, even. If you remove the Week 5 game against the Giants in which Dak left early due to his injury, he averaged 422.5 passing yards per game in the four games that he started and finished. For reference, the next closest yards/game average for a season is 342.3. He also continued his trend of consistent contributions on the ground as well, rushing for 3 TDs en route to a pace that would have seen him finish as the season's QB1.

It's remarkable that Prescott was able to transition seamlessly from a Jason Garrett-led offense that saw him finish as fantasy's QB2 in 2019, and into Mike McCarthy's combination of play-action and spread-centric schemes and go on the run that he did. It's a testament to not only his on-field talent, but also the intangibles that allow him to succeed regardless of team context.

Dak is certainly a special talent at the quarterback position, but let's not beat around the bush here. The main catalyst for his absurd numbers was Dallas' truly awful defense, which forced Dallas to play from behind and throw the ball almost every week of the season. Their 28th-ranked defense was especially bad in the games Prescott was healthy in, as they gave up an average of a whopping 36 points per game. Dallas enters the 2021 season with similar personnel on both sides of the ball, which begs the question – is last year's performance sustainable?

2021 Fantasy Projections

As the old adage in fantasy football goes, upside wins championships. So, if you're thinking about QBs who offer top-end upside for their ADP, Prescott may be the way to go. There certainly remains the chance that injuries hamper him throughout the year, but a healthy Prescott could very well carry owners into the fantasy playoffs this year. Assuming all goes well with his recovery, Prescott offers league MVP, top-scorer in fantasy upside at an ADP on ESPN that sits at 54 (QB5), as of July 29th. The only other QBs who offer just as much upside at their ADP for their combination of talent and poor team defenses are perhaps Russell Wilson (ADP 60, QB6), and Joe Burrow (ADP 111, QB11).

The current structure of the Cowboys' roster, combined with Dak Prescott's rushing capabilities, simply lends itself to a solid weekly floor, and a sky-high ceiling for Prescott. They retain 3 Pro-Bowl offensive linemen in Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and La'el Collins, and the same offensive scheme heading into next year. All-Pro RB Ezekiel Elliott, arguably the NFL's best WR core in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Ceedee Lamb, and Cedrick Wilson, and rising TE Blake Jarwin round out the league's best set of offensive talent on paper.

Lamb will definitely be an X-factor for the Cowboys' success. If last year's 17th overall pick from Oklahoma can build upon his freshman-year 935-yard campaign, that could transcend the Cowboys passing attack, as well as Dak's fantasy numbers, into the stratosphere.

Rank at Position

Dak Prescott, heading into the 2021 season, offers QB1 upside for his position, but also presents the possibility of a low-end QB1 to high-end QB2 finish, if injuries affect his performance throughout the year. Though a return off of a fractured ankle and shoulder problems may sound scary, Prescott legitimately offers the upside of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson, at a fraction of the draft capital.

As a quarterback who has started every single game since he entered the league (barring last season), and whose stats have improved every year since he's entered the league, Dak is one of the most proven and reliable option to not only retain a solid floor with the chance to explode for big games, but also give a consistent week-to-week presence. At his ADP of QB5, he offers a great chance for a return on investment for someone whose signs all point towards a potential top-3 finish at his position.