Darren Waller is coming off of two stellar seasons in which he finished top 3 at the tight end position. Waller, who came into the NFL as a wide receiver, has become almost a fantasy cheat code at the oft-barren TE position. As he and the Las Vegas Raiders head into the 2021 campaign having lost last year's team's WR1 (Nelson Agholor), Waller is primed to be a bigger target monster than ever before.
Since Waller seemingly came out of nowhere in 2019, shattering his previous career-best of 85 receiving yards in a season by over 1000, it's easy to write off his performance over the last two years as mirages due for regression. However, as a freak athlete at 6'6″ and 255 pounds with a 4.46 40-yard dash, paired with a position leading 145 targets and the 2nd-most red-zone targets for any player last year, with 27 (per NFLsavant), there's reason to believe he can be an even bigger producer than he has been.
As he sets his sights on yet another Pro Bowl appearance, let's examine whether Waller is deserving of his bonkers 25 ADP (TE2) on ESPN Fantasy, as of July 29th.
2020 Fantasy Stats
When Waller was on his game last year, he was unstoppable. With 5 games of 100 receiving yards or more, he possesses a weekly ceiling on par with Travis Kelce and George Kittle. He also provided a reasonably stable floor, having only 5 games in which he scored less than 10 fantasy points (in PPR). And, of course, he has consistently provided the most important attribute in fantasy: health. Over the last two seasons, Waller has taken the field in all 32 games that the Raiders have played.
The only cause for concern for Waller in fantasy is Jon Gruden's run-heavy offense. Over the last two seasons, the Raiders have ranked 11th in rushing attempts and 21st in passing attempts, according to Pro Football Reference. Because of Gruden's propensity to run the ball if he can, the Raiders will simply continue to give the rock to Josh Jacobs if game script allows for it. Such games caused Waller to put up less than 50 yards receiving 7 times last year. Depending on how the Raiders defense and running game evolve this year, the Raiders passing attempts could potentially consistently decrease or drastically increase.
The name of the game in fantasy, however, is upside, and Waller's performance in Week 12 against the New York Jets last year proved why he currently demands such high draft capital. Waller put up 13 receptions on 17 targets to the tune of 200 yards and 2 touchdowns in a hard fought 31-28 win. Outbursts like these show the potential Waller has to put up numbers that rival that of undisputed TE1 Travis Kelce in 2021.
2021 Fantasy Projections
At only 28 years old, Waller is the midst of his prime. As mentioned earlier, the departure of Nelson Agholor will free up even more targets for Waller. Additionally, Waller's 27 red zone targets to 9 touchdown ratio suggest that Waller is due for positive TD regression in 2021, which would raise his value even more than years prior.
Though rumors are swirling of the Raiders desires to acquire a top-flight wide receiver, such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Waller's production is significantly hampered. He was far and away the team's go-to passing option at the goal-line, and his elite physical tools combined with strong hands make him someone who Gruden will only want to look to more often.
When Darren Waller stays on the field, which he has proven he can, he is a near-lock to be one of the select few great contributors at the tight end position.
Rank at Position
It is extremely difficult to envision a scenario in which Waller finishes outside of the top-3 this year at tight end in fantasy points. While it's a stretch to predict that he'll outscore Travis Kelce, and a healthy George Kittle could certainly pace the TE leaderboards, Waller is a bonafide stud that offers week-winning upside and generational physical talent for his position. The only thing that could stop Waller from finishing any lower this year would be his health.
Is he worth a pick at the turn of the second round into the third, which might very well be Waller's asking price come draft day? It's hard to pass up the chance at a second workhorse RB, surely, but a pick on Waller in the third round might very well be worth it. Proven commodities are nearly impossible to predict beyond the top-tier of tight ends, but consistent producers at wide receiver can be found several rounds beyond the third. And is Darren Waller a proven commodity? You'd be hard-pressed to argue no.
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