Derrick “King” Henry, fresh off of an incredible season that saw him amass over 2,000 rushing yards en route to winning Offensive Player of the Year honors, looks to exact his vengeance on opposing NFL defenses, there’s no reason to believe he’s slowing down. Despite his low involvement in the passing game, the Tennessee Titans’ dominant scheme of attacking opponents downhill gives Henry a high weekly dosage of carries that consistently gives him chances to boom for big fantasy numbers.
Though the Titans added Julio Jones and will have a healthy A.J. Brown to start the year, Tennessee’s passing game is predicated on play-action, meaning that their game plans will rely on the run first and foremost. Even more notable is that Henry led his team to an 8-2 record in games that he rushed for over 100 yards. Simply put, for the Titans to succeed they must feed King Henry.
2020 Fantasy Statistics
As his OPOY award and 2,000 yard season suggest, Henry was a monster in fantasy, regardless of scoring format. Henry’s 2,027 rushing yards, 17 touchdowns, 19 receptions, and 114 receiving yards brought him to a top-3 finish at the running back position in standard, half-PPR, and even full-PPR. He also provided one of the best weekly floors for player, bar none, as he finished with 15 fantasy points in all but four weeks. Among backs who gets such little work through the air, it is truly rare to find backs who provide a weekly floor that rivals the best dual-threat monsters in the league.
Something people often forget, too, is that Henry gets stronger at the end of the year. During last year’s fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-17), Henry averaged a whopping 177.5 rushing yards, more than a touchdown, and over 26 fantasy points per game. The strongest power backs get even stronger during the cold winter months, and King Henry is no exception. There may be no better back to have on your team during the fantasy playoffs.
Derrick Henry’s most valuable attribute, however, is not his speed, power, or smarts. It’s his ability to stay on the field. Among the top five running backs heading into 2021 by ADP (per ESPN), Henry is the only one who hasn’t sustained a significant injury. He’s started every single game over the last two seasons, while Christian McCaffrey (13 games), Dalvin Cook (4 games), Saquon Barkley (17 games), and Alvin Kamara (13 games) have all missed several starts over the last two seasons.
Though Henry has a reputation for being a physical back that enjoys ramming head-on into oncoming tacklers, consistent viewers of his less extravagant rushing attempts will see that he uses his underrated straight-line speed to get out of bounds and his extraordinary length and size to shield defenders much more than the average running back. By avoiding unnecessary contact, Henry keeps himself fresh for higher stakes runs late in the game, and future seasons to come.
2021 Fantasy Projections
Regression to some extent is to be expected for Henry, heading into the 2021 season. There has never been a running back to rush for 2,000+ yards in consecutive seasons. Last year's total of 17 touchdowns on the ground was also reasonable given his volume, and expecting more would be greedy. So really, the only room for improvement fantasy-wise for Henry is his production in the passing game.
Though there's been footage this offseason of Henry working on his hands in the passing game, reports like these come out for him seemingly every year and correspond with no significant uptick in targets. The bottom line is that Henry simply lacks the short-area burst and quickness to become a real threat out of the backfield. And, even despite Dion Lewis' departure, the addition of Brian Hill, a decent pass-catching back from the Atlanta Falcons, should demand around the same amount of targets as Lewis. Why throw the ball to Henry when he runs it down opponents' throats just fine?
Barring injury, I expect similar production from Henry year-to-year. He's not game-script dependent, and will never be a true force in the passing game. Around 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns is a reasonable prediction.
Rank at Position
Derrick Henry is not a sexy pick. However, for those drafting with a top-5 pick, drafting a player who gives high-tier production and avoids the IR in the first round is often integral in making the playoffs. So, while Henry doesn't quite possess the sky-high upside of a CMC, Dalvin Cook, or any of the dual-threat backs going in the beginning of the first round, that's not his appeal. Drafting Henry early on gives you a flier on low-risk, high-reward backs later on in the draft, knowing that you'll always have a bonafide RB1 sitting in your lineup.
Almost all sites project Henry as a top-5 back this season, but rarely is he seen in the projected top-3. That's exactly where I'd put him heading into this year. The King will most likely be bested by a few dynamic three-down backs in PPR and half-PPR formats, but it's much more difficult to predict who those will, as opposed to Derrick Henry, whose signs all point towards having a mid-to-high tier RB1 season.
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