After the All-Star players’ names were announced fans immediately started talking. It was either about the sequence the teams got drafted or about snubs in the Western Conference. However, the very same people are overlooking an interesting turn of events hidden between the lines. It revolves around one particular player and the future of his career.
The exhibition game marked a turning point for OKC’s power forward Carmelo Anthony. For his fifteen seasons in the league, he has been an All-Star ten times with a streak of seven consecutive selections until 2018.
This year Carmelo Anthony received more than 380 thousand votes. That placed him seventh in the Western Conference frontcourt competition. The irony is that he did not get a selection even though Karl-Anthony Towns and LaMarcus Aldridge did. And they were placed 9th and 10th in votes. Which means that players’ and media’s votes did not back Anthony up.
This is a warning signal that Anthony is starting to lose popularity and entering the tail end of this underrated career. In addition, he is an aging player in a conference packed with young or prime-time talent.
Regardless, losing his All-Star status is hardly the biggest challenge for Carmelo. Unfortunately for him, his team suffered a worse loss that will impact him without any doubt.
In a game against the Detroit Pistons OKC’s guard Andre Roberson suffered a leg injury that will sideline him for the rest of the season. Therefore Oklahoma will be forced to play without a major defensive force at the two spot.
Right now rookie Terrance Ferguson has taken the vacated spot on the roster. However, his lack of experience and body size immediately turns into a weak spot that opposing teams will attack.
Shooting guards the likes of Andrew Wiggins, James Harden or Klay Thompson will certainly have an easier task in man-to-man coverage. It's truly a crucial ability that must be defined by the playoffs as Oklahoma will eventually face one of those players and their teams.
Billy Donovan has also tried to place either Josh Huestis or Alex Abrines at the shooting guard spot but that did not have any significant impact. What's worse is that Sam Presti could not pull off a trade before the deadline meaning that the Thunder players have to fix this problem on their own.
This is a challenging situation for Carmelo Anthony. He ended up on the Thunder where he was expected to be a scorer. It's fair to expect him to show up on defense in order to compensate for the loss of Roberson. Now that Anthony has lost his All-Star status he is presented with an option to solidify his game and try to retake his popularity in the league.
First of all, from OKC’s big three (Steven Adams excluded due to his role specifics) Anthony is the only player who clearly has room to improve.
Let’s take Russell Westbrook. He is having yet another season averaging a triple-double but this time he is “not alone”. Therefore, he has managed to adapt and after the early season slump reemerged as a leader. The reigning MVP is now playing like he did last year but his team is winning.
As of today, the Thunder ranks sixth in ESPN’s power rankings. Westbrook has reached his prime and the only thing he can work on is his free throw percentage which is right around 70%. Apart from that, he doesn’t have anything else to prove on the court.
The very same thing can be said about Paul George. He has been in the conversation for the best two-way player since Kawhi Leonard has remained out for most of the season. Many speculated that this season the Thunder would have a disinterested version of George since he did not get traded to the Lakers.
Proving the doubters wrong, George appears to be fully committed to his new role. And even though Demarcus Cousins had to vacate his spot for the All-Star Game, it was Paul George who got in instead of Nikola Jokic and Lou Williams. OKC’s small forward is also putting up solid numbers matching his career average – 21pts, 5rbs, 2ast and 2.2 steals per game which is league high. George has also cut some of his playstyle flaws. Like dribbling too much after getting the ball. So, in other words, he is doing his job.
And there you have Melo as the third option on offense. It’s hard to say it but it’s is a fact – he is underperforming while being the oldest of the Big Trio. Relative to his teammates that might be harsh, but with expectations rising it's becoming more reasonable to ask more of Anthony.
As he is nearing his 34th birthday, Anthony is now averaging 17.5pts, 6rbs and 1.5ast – all of those numbers are lower than his career 24.4pts, 6.6rbs and 3.0ast. It is obvious he is willing to change his game in OKC in order to win. Giving up his isolation shooting and back-to-the-basket dribbling was just the first step. Now that Andre Roberson is out a new task has emerged in front of Carmelo. He is obliged to show up on defense as he still has potential to improve in that regard.
First, let’s evaluate Roberson defensive presence. Per 100 possessions the Thunder allowed 99 points when he was on the court. When he was off the points allowed jumped to 112. This doesn’t count for Carmelo as this differential is just one point with him being on/off. The other numbers speak for themselves.
When Roberson is off the court, opponents' total rebound percentage goes up by five and block percentage goes up by two. Meanwhile, the Thunder drops five percent in total rebounds and just less than four percent in steals.
One could argue that such extreme analytics are just ruining the game and turning it into what NFL football has become today. Yet they show on paper what the Thunder has to deal with and that is a solid defensive presence.
So here is what Carmelo Anthony can fix on defense. First, he can start with how he is guarding the opposing players. Melo keeps at least an arm or two arms distance from his man. He is probably thinking that this positioning may provide him with easy steals as he has that arm length to swoop in for an interception. Or he is trying to make it easier to switch on defense. Let’s not forget he used to play small-forward for years and this position swap may be having an impact.
Unfortunately for Anthony, the distance between him and the opposite player may create a “blind spot”. As he watches for the ball play Melo sometimes loses track of his opponent who dashes behind him to get open. Usually, this happens near the post area which means two points or a trip to the line for the opposing team.
Another problem with Anthony’s defense is his overall speed which has been on a decline. He is no longer in his prime not to mention that ware and tare are starting to show. Melo is not fast enough on the switch nor on the closeout. That’s partly because he is stuck in a weird spot where he is not too far but not too close to the ball.
An example where this is a problem is rebounding. Since Westbrook is notorious for his dashes for boards and Steven Adams is an All-NBA rebounder Carmelo can sometimes be spotted just staring at the rim rather than going for the ball. This is a complex problem which also involves Billy Donovan and how he manages the players. So Anthony may not get all the blame for that.
And last but not least. Offensive rebounds aren’t the thing for Melo because most of the times he is either the one shooting the ball or the one baiting opponents’ defense around the three-point line. Therefore this stat line will remain as it is.
However, the transition is stalling for the power forward. Not only he is not nearly as quick as Andre Roberson – he often retreats with his back to the basket when he is close to midcourt. Essentially that slows him down even more as quicker guards can dash by him.
So what is his situation right now? Being the third scoring option Anthony finally has the burden of caring the offense off his back. But just as he was turning into a shooter and a solid support the team lost a major defender in the face of Andre Roberson. And the expectations fall on Anthony to show up on defense as Russell Westbrook and Paul George have virtually maxed out their roles.
Meanwhile, the Thunder failed in finding any player on the trade market to fill for Roberson. Maybe the “small market” factor had its effect or maybe it was the tough cap situation that Sam Presti has to manage? What we know is that the All-Star break will be the turning point for Carmelo Anthony. It will give him an opportunity to expand his potential as a defender and a team player, which would boost OKC’s performance and chances in the postseason. And surely be a sign that good ol’ Melo is not done yet done as a star in the NBA.
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