Almost nobody would have called the Utah Jazz legitimate title contenders coming into the 2020-21 NBA season. But after dispatching the Los Angeles Clippers in Games 1 and 2, they now stand 10 wins away from a championship.
While the Jazz are far from the unbeatable favorites, they look just as likely to win it all as any of the strong contenders left in the field. They're following a tried and tested blueprint executed to perfection by another team who was once in their exact spot: the 2014-15 Golden State Warriors.
Can Jazz replicate the success of the 2014-15 Warriors?
Donovan Mitchell led the Jazz straight to the top of the NBA table. They stayed there for basically the entire season, holding their place for so long that they lost the buzz they generated from earlier in the year. But make no mistake about it, this squad is legit.
Stop us if you've heard this story before. A Western Conference club coming off a first round exit transforms from playoff contender to best team in the league during the regular season. They're led by an offensively gifted guard coming off his first All-Star appearance, capable of scoring 40 without breaking a sweat. He's balanced out by a Defensive Player of the Year who serves as the lynchpin of their stifling 2-way attack. Their biggest weapon during the regular season was their extremely accurate barrage of high volume three-point shooting.
But the threes will miss sooner or later, right? That's what everyone said about the Warriors, too. Up until that point, the trigger-happy three-point strategy was just a gimmick that was fun to watch, but not a recipe for postseason success.
Fast forward six years later and the entire league is shooting more threes than the 2014-15 Warriors. And I mean that literally. The Dubs shot 27 threes per game during the first year of their dynastic run. The 2020-21 San Antonio Spurs, led by well-known long-two enthusiast DeMar DeRozan, were last in the NBA in attempts from beyond the arc at 28.4 per game. The Jazz however, just like the Warriors, took it to an entirely different level relative to their time.
The Utah Jazz attempted 43.0 three-pointers per game during the regular season, a full three attempts ahead of the second place Portland Trail Blazers. It's interesting to note that their league-high in attempts during the most three-crazy season isn't the most in NBA history. That mantle belongs to the James Harden-led Houston Rockets, who infamously fell short against Stephen Curry's Warriors year in and year out. While the Rockets shot an insane amount from beyond the arc, their teams hovered around league average at actually knocking them down.
The reason that the Jazz are more like the Dubs than they are the Rockets is because they have the personnel to maximize those attempts. Utah has six players in their regular rotation who shot above 38.5% from three-point land. Donovan Mitchell, Royce O'Neal, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, and Mike Conley Jr. They also have Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson to generate three-point opportunities out of thin air at a league-average rate.
Their combination of volume and accuracy relative to their in-season rivals is something we've only ever seen from the Golden State Warriors' title teams.
The Jazz have even managed to stay true to form through their first two rounds of play thus far. Their shooting percentage ranks third (40.9%), just a decimals away from the first place Blazers (41.3%). But they've set themselves apart by being the only team taking over 40 attempts per game, going well above at 42.3 3PA.
Through two games against the Clippers, they've managed to shoot 37-of-89 from three, good for 41.6% as a team. That mark is extra impressive against the Clips considering that they're the sixth best at limiting their opponent's three-point accuracy. Regular season opponents shot just 35.6 against LA's rotating cast of solid wing defenders.
Save for one game against the Memphis Grizzlies without Donovan Mitchell, the Jazz have stayed perfect and look just like their regular season selves. But of course, the doubts will still persist as long as they haven't actually won anything. Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors faced similar doubts up until the confetti fell. The Jazz just need to follow the blueprint.
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