August depth charts are a funny thing in the NFL, especially when teams release an ‘official’ look into their projected roster for the upcoming season. And while the general practice is to list rookies at the end of all positional groupings, there is no chance that Drake London will remain at the back end of the wide receiver room for the Atlanta Falcons.

With Calvin Ridley serving a year-long suspension over placing bets on the Falcons, London slides in as the logical WR1 in a dreadful offensive attack. But the age-old adage is that volume is king, and here, volume will help push London up the ranks into mid-to-high WR2 territory this season.

The Falcons will not have a good on-field product this year, but with London and Kyle Pitts as the two pillars for Atlanta’s passing attack, Marcus Mariota will be able to heavily rely on these two young players as they likely will be playing from behind often.

Atlanta Falcons, Arthur Smith, Drake London

Drake London 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

Make no mistake – the Falcons went offensive skill player for the second consecutive draft with their first selection for a reason.

London’s pure talent was on full display during his three seasons with USC, racking up 170 receptions, over 2,000 yards, and 15 receiving TDs. In his final collegiate season alone, London produced an 88/1,084/7 line on a ridiculous 24.7 percent target share.

For context, last year’s WR leader in target share was MIN’s Justin Jefferson at 29.1 percent, and last year’s overall WR1 in Cooper Kupp finished sixth at 26.0 percent. While maintaining a 20.0 percent target share or above would be a ridiculous start to London’s career, expecting those numbers right out of the gate is not reasonable.

Another semi-relevant example of what to expect for London this year – in Pitts’ rookie season (and Matt Ryan’s final as a member of the Falcons), the Florida rookie earned the second-highest target share amongst TEs (19.9 percent), but that total pales in comparison to the leader, Mark Andrews, who earned a whopping 26.0 target share percentage.

Last year’s target share figures are meant to demonstrate that while London will command a healthy amount of passes from Mariota in his rookie season, thinking that just because he is the top WR on the depth chart come Week 1 will not necessarily justify a high ADP.

According to Underdog Fantasy, London’s current average draft slot is around the end of the sixth round (WR35 range), and if you can plug him in as your WR3/FLEX option on a weekly basis, he would represent a solid value pick, but not likely a home-run selection.

A big part of judging London’s fantasy football impact in 2022 rests on the right arm of Mariota, a QB fresh brought in this off-season from the Las Vegas Raiders. Pairing Mariota back up with former Tennessee OC Arthur Smith may help ease any transitional questions, but the fact remains that Mariota is not at his Heisman-like level of play anymore, limiting his ceiling and that of his targets.

Looking back to the 2019 season (the last season that Mariota earned starting QB work), Mariota’s affinity for targeting TEs heavily (2nd-highest in the league at 27.7 percent) could mean a lower ceiling for London this year.

London should be a sleeper draft target this year in all redraft formats, and for dynasty leagues, he is clearly a top-5 selection in all rookie drafts. His rookie-year production may not be as good as his draft slot may expect, but the USC rookie has a very moldable skill set that can help him ascend into that top-target role in the Atlanta offense – maybe just not entering into the 1K club right away as a rookie.

2022 Projections – 80 targets, 62 receptions, 727 yards, 4 TDs