The Miami Heat have been one of the biggest surprises of this NBA season. The addition of Jimmy Butler, the development of Bam Adebayo and the breakout of Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson have made Miami a force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference. However, despite all those factors, the one that Miami fans might be most excited about in the future is rookie guard Tyler Herro.
After a strong freshman season at the University of Kentucky, Miami drafted the 6-foot-5 Herro with the No. 13 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. After performing exceptionally well in both the NBA Summer League and preseason, expectations were high for the 19-year-old shooting guard.
Herro has done well at meeting and often exceeding those expectations this season. Through 35 games, Herro has made three starts, played 28.6 minutes per game and averaged 13.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game.
For a rookie coming off the bench, those are pretty great numbers. Herro isn't perfect though. Rookie guards, especially those as young as Herro often struggle with efficiency at the start of their careers. That has applied to Herro thus far.
The rookie has shot just 41.4-percent from the field — not terrible but definitely not great. On the other hand, his three-point percentage of 37.8 is quite good.
Another concern with Herro's game is his lack of production as a playmaker. Putting up 2.1 assists wouldn't be a problem depending on a player's role on a team. However, when you're averaging almost as many turnovers as assists (1.9), it becomes a noticeable problem.
As far as his potential ceiling, Herro certainly has the right mix of skills, athleticism, and confidence to become one of the better scorers in the league. If he continues to develop and the Heat gives him more opportunities, a 20-plus point per game season definitely isn't out of the question in the future.
I'm not sure if I ever see Herro becoming the best player on his respective team. I think he's probably better suited to a strong secondary role à la C.J. McCollum. Still, If he can put up that kind of production, there'll likely be a few All-Star games in his future.
As far as his floor, it's pretty high. Herro has already shown his ability to score at an NBA level and unless he suffers multiple serious injuries, expect him to do that at a pretty high level. Maybe Herro won't ever blossom into a star but it looks like he will always be a strong scoring off the bench at the very least.
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