Antonio Brown finally got his wish to be traded this offseason, going to the Oakland Raiders. The elite wideout saw his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers come to an end, but he can still produce at a high level.
Can Brown continue his run of dominance in Oakland? Or will he take a step back after leaving Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh? Let's discuss.
First off, we're going to discuss these questions as it pertains to fantasy football. After all, the fantasy football season is steadily approaching soon. That means lazy Sundays where watching football becomes a routine from September until February.
Now, let's get back to Brown and whether or not he will produce at an elite level once again with the Raiders. Is the new Raiders receiver worthy of using a top-five pick on in fantasy drafts?
Likely not, as there are a lot of players who continue to rise up draft boards with their impressive production. For instance, last season, we got to witness Patrick Mahomes throw for 50 touchdowns for the Kansas City Chiefs.
His 50 touchdowns helped him lead the NFL in fantasy points with 417. Even then, Mahomes is currently being taken with the 19th pick in ESPN leagues (on average).
Why are people passing up on Mahomes you might ask? Like Puff Daddy said: “It's all about the Benjamins baby.” Likewise, in the NFL, “It's all about the running backs baby.”
Currently, the first six picks of fantasy drafts are owned by running backs. In addition, seven of the top 10 picks are running backs. People are leaning towards taking guys like Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, etc.
Running backs are the best way to receive the most points for your buck—especially in half-point or full-point PPR (points per reception) leagues. Besides, four out of the top six fantasy scorers in full-point PPR leagues were running backs.
Therefore, it's hard to justify taking Brown in the top five of any fantasy draft. As it stands now, Brown's average draft selection is 16th in ESPN leagues. Brown will undoubtedly produce still with his new quarterback in Derek Carr but not enough to warrant a top-five selection.
In the past six seasons, Brown averaged 114 receptions, 1,524 yards, and 11 touchdowns with the Steelers. Age also hasn't caught up to the All-Pro receiver yet with the 30-year old catching a career-high 15 touchdowns in 2018.
So why isn't the seven-time Pro Bowl receiver worth a pick in the top five? Over the last six seasons, Brown has averaged 171 targets per season. It's tough to see him get those same targets with Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, and J.J. Nelson on the offense.
As many may know, there is only one football to go around, and the Raiders are likely to run it more with Josh Jacobs. They didn't select the Alabama running back for no apparent reason.
The Raiders and Jon Gruden know it's going to take a collective effort for the offense to get rolling. As a result, Brown may take a slight hit to his targets in the upcoming season.
Also, there are a lot of receivers who are being considered as top picks in fantasy. You can make arguments for DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr. to be taken ahead of Brown.
Nonetheless, people shouldn't avoid taking the new receiver in silver and black but taking him in the top five would be a risky decision.
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