Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is on a tear. In the last two weeks, the dynamic slot receiver has amassed 16 receptions 221 yards and two touchdowns. Each of his performances includes at least five receptions for 100+ yards. Is he going to have another big game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday?
Yes.
Kupp is — and has been since 2017 — Jared Goff's favorite wide receiver to target, particularly as a safety valve. Over his 26 career games, the receiver is averaging nearly seven targets per outing. However, that's not the reason why he'll have a big day against Tampa Bay; it's the opposer's defense.
The porous Tampa Bay secondary is improved, but they are still allowing 261 passing yards per game. That alone should present an ideal matchup for Kupp. It goes deeper than that.
According to Sharp Football Stats, the Buccaneers' defense isn't particularly successful where Goff and the Rams are. Tampa Bay has allowed an 85 passer rating on the 0-14 left range, a 95 in the middle, and 78 on the right. Goff, at the same locations: 114, 116, and 83. They also allow a 141 passer rating to the deep left. However, Goff averages a four passer rating in that area.
Furthermore, Kupp scorches that same 0-14-yard left range. Through three games, he has tallied eight receptions out of nine targets for 123 yards and two scores, equating to a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the same area. Remember, the Bucs are allowing an 85 passer rating in the same area and that is to Jimmy Garoppolo, an injured Cam Newton, and Daniel Jones, not a high-powered offense such as the Rams.
Where does Kupp receive his most targets is in the middle of the field? Per Sharp Football Stats, 50% of his targets come in the same area. That's ideal when facing the Buccaneers, who are allowing a 95 passer rating in the 0-14 yard middle area. While they aren't susceptible to overall success in the deep middle (75 passer rating), they are on first down (119). Goff does well finding Kupp on first down, as he has a 67% success rate when doing so.
In culmination, Tampa Bay isn't a successful defense against the pass in general. One of their most significant weaknesses comes in the 0-14 yard range. That's where the Rams offense succeeds, particularly Kupp, who, at this point, is the team's top option.
Expect the Rams to feed Kupp in the short yard range, where he can feast on a secondary and a battered linebacking corps that lacks in the same area.
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