The Main Card of UFC Paris: Moicano vs. Saint-Denis is finally here and we’re bringing you a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout taking place in the Lightweight (155) Division. France’s own Fares Ziam will take on USA’s Matt Frevola to kick things off from the Accor Arena. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ziam-Frevola prediction and pick.
Fares Ziam (15-4) comes in with a 5-2 record in the UFC since 2019. Following a tough loss to Terrance McKinney back in 2022, he’s won his last three-straight fights over the likes of Michal Figlak, Jai Herbert, and Claudio Puelles. He’ll look to continue riding this momentum as he searches for another decision win. Ziam stands 6’1″ with a 75-inch reach.
Matt Frevola (11-4-1) has gone 5-4-1 under the UFC since 2018. He was riding a solid winning streak of three fights with three finishes to show for it as well. Almost a year ago, he lost his last fight to Benoit Saint Denis during a massive MSG fight card and after becoming a father, hopes to rebound in his first fight back. Frevola stands 5’9″ with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Fares Ziam-Matt Frevola Odds
Fares Ziam: -130
Matt Frevola: +110
Over 2.5 rounds: -145
Under 2.5 rounds: +114
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Why Fares Ziam Will Win
Fares Ziam is currently on an impressive streak as he’s won his last three consecutive bouts by decision. Standing 6-foot-1 with a long 75-inch reach, he’s immediately a physical problem to solve within the Lightweight Division as he often towers over his opponents. To compliment his rangy striking, Ziam does a great job of mixing in his kicking game and attacking opponents to the body early with his legs. Ziam is also very consistent in popping his jab out front and if he’s able to control the striking distance, he’s usually very consistent in keeping a solid pace and striking his way to a victory.
Fares Ziam will see his greatest success during this fight if he’s able to keep it on the feet and keep Frevola at a safe distance. He’s very persistent in keeping his defense tight and tactical during the fight, so don’t expect him to take too much damage if he’s able to utilize his reach. Still, Ziam has been known to let his output waver at points of the fight, so he’ll have to remain diligent in staying active and keeping Frevola at the end of his punches. Fighting behind an impressive 62% takedown defense rate, he’ll be doing everything in his power to keep this fight on the feet.
Why Matt Frevola Will Win
Matt Frevola was literally steamrolling competition during his three-fight winning streak and he was able to finish all of those bouts with his fists in the first round. In a similar fashion, he was finished by Benoit Saint Denis via head kick and found himself on the wrong end of his most recent bout. Since then, Frevola stepped away to become a father and has since returned back to training with a new passion for the sport. Despite his last bout finishing unfortunately, he’s been quoted in the lead-up to this bout saying he’s ready to bring a “dogfight” to his opponent. With the way he’s able to trudge through the fire and get his own shots off, we should be expecting the same old “Steamrolla” Frevola during this contest.
Frevola’s opponent has seen decision wins over his last few fights, so he’d greatly benefit from coming out the gates hot and immediately bringing the action to Ziam from the opening bell. Frevola is also typically tight with his striking defense and considering the advantage in striking power he has over Ziam, he has to like his chances for landing a knockout blow if these two start trading inside the pocket. Still, his game plan could indicate that he’ll be looking to get this fight to the ground as he tries to slowly chip away at his opponent’s will.
Final Fares Ziam-Matt Frevola Prediction & Pick
We’ve got yet another exciting fight to open the Main Card action at UFC Paris and it’ll be interesting to see how Fares Ziam tailors his game to suite the typical forward pressure of Matt Frevola. Frevola, on the other hand, is looking to rebound after a bad loss in his last bout and given the changes in his personal life heading into this one, we should see an extremely motivated version of him come Saturday.
Fares Ziam will be intent on keeping this fight at a safe distance, but something tells us Matt Frevola will have other plans as he tries to close the distance and tie Ziam up in the clinch.
Typically, we would Fares Ziam on a three-fight winning streak here, but the style and knockout threat of Matt Frevola serves as a bad matchup for him. If Frevola is able to make this fight ugly and negate Ziam’s striking with his grappling, I expect him to come away with the win here. Let’s take a small shot on the underdog line in this one.
Final Fares Ziam-Matt Frevola Prediction & Pick: Matt Frevola (+110)
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