Conference USA midweek action is on tap as FIU and New Mexico State face off. It is time to continue our College Football odds Series with an FIU-New Mexico State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
FIU enters the game at 3-2 on the season. They opened the season with a close loss to Louisiana Tech. After being up 17-3, Louisana Tech scored ten points to make it a 17-13 game at the half. Louisana Tech scored nine more in the second half to win 22-17. FIU would roll off three wins in a row after that. They defeated Maine, North Texas, and UCONN before their second conference game of the season. In that one, they would lose big to Liberty. FIU was down 24-6 at the half and would lose 38-6.
New Mexico State enters the game at 2-3 on the year. After a loss to UMASS to open the season, they would defeat Western Illinois the next week. In the third game of the year, it was the first conference game of the season. They would lose to Liberty in the game 33-17. After defeating in-state rival New Mexico, New Mexico State would visit Hawai'i and fall by three. Hawai'i came back from a 17-3 halftime deficit to beat New Mexico State 20-17.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: FIU-New Mexico State Odds
FIU: +6.5 (-110)
New Mexico State: -6.5 (-110)
Over: 49.5 (-110)
Under: 49.5 (-110)
How to Watch FIU vs. New Mexico State Week 6
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: CBS Sports App
Time: 9:00 PM ET/ 6:00 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why FIU Will Cover The Spread
FIU is led on offense by Keyone Jenkins. Jenkins has completed 59 of 109 passes this year for 1,000 yards and five touchdowns. He has ten big-time throws according to PFF. While Jenkins is pushing the ball downfield well, he is having some sack and turnover issues. Jenkins has been pressured 45 times this year, and been sacked 13 times. That is a 28.9 percent sack rate under pressure this year. Further, he has thrown four interceptions this year with another eight turnover-worthy passes. Jenkins has also fumbled six times this year as well.
FIU has had a solid running game this year as well. Shomari Lawrence has led the way for FIU on the ground this year. He has 312 yards on 53 carries so far this year. That has led to two scores as well. What has been impressive is his work after first contact. Lawrence has 4.94 yards per attempt after first contact this year. He also has forced 16 missed tackles this year.
FIU also has a great receiver this year in Kris Mitchell. Mitchell has brought in 23 of 36 receptions this year for 459 yards. He has averaged 20 yards per reception and has caught four touchdowns. What has been amazing after the catch? This year he has 208 yards after the catch, averaging nine yards per reception after the catch.
The pass rush has also been solid this year for FIU. They have 90 pressures this year on the quarterback, with nine sacks. Alex Nobels has led the way with 18 pressures and two sacks this season. FIU has also been solid on the run. They have 97 stops for offensive failures in the run this year on 169 attempts. FIU has also only missed 33 tackles in five games this year. They have also forced five fumbles and had four interceptions this season.
Why New Mexico State Will Cover The Spread
New Mexico State is led by Deigo Pavia. This year Pavia is 62 for 97 passing for 1,076 yards and ten touchdowns. He has had some solid games and some rough games. Pavis has three games in which he has two touchdowns and no interceptions with just one turnover-worthy pass in the three games. Meanwhile, Pavia has four interceptions and four other turnover-worthy passes in the other two games. Pavia has also been solid on the ground. He has 140 scramble yards this year with 324 total yards rushing.
Beyond Deigo Pavia, New Mexico State also has Star Thomas and Monte Williams in the backfield. Thomas has rushed 42 times this year for 223 yards and three scores. He has been getting almost two yards per carry before first contact this year while also forcing 16 missed tackles. Monte Watkins has 203 yards rushing this year with two touchdowns.
Star Thomas has also been great as a receiver this year. He has brought in all 11 targets that have been sent his way. that has gotten him 116 yards and a score this year. Meanwhile, Jonathan Brady has hauled in 10 of the 16 targets sent his way for 252 yards. He has 146 yards after the catch this season, averaging nearly 15 yards after the catch per reception. Brady has also scored three times this year.
New Mexico State has been solid in the pass rush, but not great. They have 81 quarterback pressures this year with eight sacks on the season. Only Sone Aupiu has more than one sack this year, having two with three quarterback pressures. New Mexico State has not been great against the pass this year. While they do have 14 pass breakups and three dropped interceptions, they have not forced an interception yet. They also have allowed six touchdowns through the air this year. New Mexico State is doing a solid job after the catch for the most part. They have allowed just 459 yards after the catch this year while allowing a total of 1,212 yards through the air overall.
Final FIU-New Mexico State Prediction & Pick
FIU comes in off a very bad performance on offense. Still, that was against a quality Liberty defense, which is something New Mexico State does not have. New Mexico State comes in with the better offense overall. They were able to put up 17 points against Liberty, nine more points than FIU did. This should be an entertaining game and could come down to turnovers. FIU has forced more turnovers this year, while New Mexico State has peaks and valleys in their turnover play. If they hold onto the ball in this one, they will come away with a win. With how FIU attacks the ball though, New Mexico State is going to turn it over a few times. Take FIU with the points in this one.
Final FIU-New Mexico State Prediction & Pick: FIU +6.5 (-110)