While we are all entranced by the tight playoff race in the Western Conference, it’s never too early to look ahead to the Summer.
It has been reported that this year’s market will be a tight one. The 2016 cap spike caused teams to spend money like kids in a candy store and now that the sugar rush has worn off, few teams will have significant cap space.
Needless to say, this will make restricted free agency even more hairy than it has been in recent years (where we’ve seen the process take longer and longer to play out).
I’ve targeted four restricted free agents I find to be the most interesting this year.
Aaron Gordon | Orlando Magic
Is he a 3? Is he a 4? If you ask me, he could play some 5. Aaron Gordon is a test case for how the NBA really views position-less basketball. While he didn’t jump over any mascots this season, Gordon has posted career highs in points per game, rebounds per game, and usage rate; all while shooting a very respectable 34.5 percent on nearly six three-point attempts per game.
His shooting improvement feels real. Defensively, he’s able to hold his own at both the 3 and 4, but isn’t what anyone would call a lockdown defender.
Gordon was probably regarded as the top restricted free agent in this class coming into the season. With his improved shooting, he has cemented that spot. At only 22 years old, he’s also one of the younger guys available. This matters for teams like the Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, and Chicago Bulls, who are looking to add to their existing young groups.
Jabari Parker | Milwaukee Bucks
First of all, I’d love to enact a ban on knee injuries forever. But since that isn’t feasible, all conversations about Jabari Parker are going to begin with those two ACL injuries.
Before re-injuring his left knee last season, Parker was rounding into form as the guy a lot of draft experts thought he would be, a 20-points per game scorer with the ability to create his own shot while also improving from deep, improving his three-point percentage by nine points with three more attempts per game.f
Since his return this season, Parker has actually improved his shooting numbers across the board. His athleticism and burst seem to be returning to pre-injury levels.
Offensively, he is supremely talented, but his overall impact is negated by his defense; particularly his defensive rebounding. The Bucks have -6.8 net rating (per Cleaning the Glass) with Jabari on the court. That number falls off a cliff in lineups featuring Jabari without Giannis.
The Bucks, reportedly, floated Parker’s name at the trade deadline hoping to land a bigger fish. The two sides couldn’t come to an agreement on an extension prior to the season, with the Bucks holding firm to something less than $18 million per season. Parker wants a max, but it’s hard to envision that being available on the open market.
Julius Randle | Los Angeles Lakers
“I think Julius Randle is going to have a breakout season, the league better watch out,” – Magic Johnson
The Lakers’ best player this season has been Julius Randle. After spending the off-season working on his game and his body, Randle has lived up to Magic Johnson’s hype.
Randle, the Rhinoceros in a Unicorn league, has spent this season decimating defenders with a beautiful blend of quickness and power. As a starter this season, he’s average 19 points and 9.3 rebounds a game and the Lakers have a plus 6 Net Rating with him on the floor. That sort of production isn’t easy to come by and it creates an interesting dilemma for the Lakers this summer.
Everyone is well aware of the Lakers path to two max salary slots and their desire to lure Paul George and another marquee *cough LeBron* free agent in July. The easiest path is to renounce Randle’s rights and his $12.4 million cap hold, thus making him an unrestricted free agent. Jumping the gun on that decision could force the Lakers to lose him for nothing, which is less than ideal for an asset as valuable as Randle.
The Mavericks are the sexiest potential suitor for Randle. His Dallas roots and ability to play the 4 or 5 next to Harrison Barnes, in conventional or small-ball combinations, certainly has some appeal despite some potential defensive shortcomings. I would expect Randle’s free agency to last into at least mid-July as the Lakers figure things out on their end.
Marcus Smart | Boston Celtics
Marcus Smart is a human-wolverine hybrid who can guard all five positions and scare the bejesus out of you while doing it. He’s incredibly adept at making “winning plays,” which is reflected by his +5.5 Net Rating and backed up by the tape.
He is a bonafide top 5 defensive player in the league. His playmaking has improved greatly since his rookie year and he is a key piece to Boston’s success this season.
But Marcus Smart also sucks at shooting.
Of the 147 players who average nine or more field goal attempts per game, Smart’s True Shooting percentage of 47.9 ranks 144th. The three players below him, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr., and Lonzo Ball, are all rookies. That’s not great, Bob.
Unfortunately, the Celtics and Smart couldn’t come to a contract extension agreement prior to the season. I would expect him to re-sign with the Celtics at something in the vicinity of the mid-level exception (worth $8.4 million this season) or for the Celtics to engineer a sign and trade if he receives an offer that isn’t palatable to their front office. The presence of Terry Rozier would make the loss of Smart a much easier pill to swallow.
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