The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars are set to being their Western Conference Final series on Friday.
The Golden Knights finished the season as the top team in the Pacific Division. Their route to this point has included a five-game first round series win over the Winnipeg Jets, before defeating the Edmonton Oilers in six second round games. This will mark the Golden Knights' fourth time reaching the third round in their six NHL seasons.
Dallas, on the other hand, finished second in the Central Division. They got past the Minnesota Wild in six games during the first round, before squeaking by the Seattle Kraken in seven games. It's the first time in three years the Stars are in the Conference Final.
However, the series marks a re-match from the 2020 bubble playoffs. Vegas was the top seed for the postseason there as well, but were defeated by the Stars in five games, as Dallas advanced to play the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final.
Below, we take a look at how the teams stack up this time around.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights' top forwards have shown up in a big way. Six players in Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev and William Karlsson have combined for 31 goals in just 11 games. So while Vegas only ranked 14th in the NHL in goals this season, they haven't had any issues scoring in the postseason.
The Golden Knights' defense group is also extremely well-rounded. The top pairing of Alec Martinez and Alex Pietrangelo can both provide offense and effectively defend. Meanwhile, Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb compliment each others' styles well on the second pair, and Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud are effective on the bottom pair. Something to track though: Vegas hasn't gotten a single playoff goal from any of their top-four defensemen.
On another note, most teams can't just go with a ‘Next Man Up' strategy with goaltending. Apparently though, the Golden Knights are the exception. With Robin Lehner out for the year and Logan Thompson unavailable, the team turned to Laurent Brossoit. Then after Brossoit was injured in Game 3 against the Oilers, the job went to Adin Hill. The netminder hasn't missed a step since taking over, posting a .934 playoff save percentage.
Another factor: special teams have not benefitted the Golden Knights. Vegas' power play has operated at 18 percent, with their penalty kill at only 60 percent. While some of the blame for the penalty kill can be attributed to facing Edmonton's high-octane power play, the Golden Knights have still been the worst playoff team on both the power play and penalty kill of any teams remaining.
Dallas Stars
After finishing seventh in the league in goals this year, we know offense isn't an issue for Dallas, either.
Roope Hintz has been leading the way offensively for Dallas and is a Conn Smythe favorite thus far. With nine goals and 19 points in 13 games, Hintz is just a point back of now-eliminated Connor McDavid for the playoff scoring lead. Joe Pavelski also has eight goals in eight playoff games since returning.
Jason Robertson was pretty quiet against the Kraken, with no goals and five assists in the series. Regardless though, he remains one of the league's best scorers and will be another huge threat in Dallas' forward group. Max Domi has also been a great addition, with 11 points in 13 playoff games, while Jamie Benn has 10 points. Tyler Seguin and Evgenii Dadonov both have nine points as well.
The Stars are led by Miro Heiskanen on the blue line, averaging over 28 minutes per game in the playoffs. Ryan Suter has also been capable in a large role, while Esa Lindell is a serviceable top-four defender. After that though, the Stars' defensive depth does drop off. Jani Hakanpaa, Colin Miller, Joel Hanley and Thomas Harley will be used for the remaining spots. The team's top defensemen will carry a lot of the workload as a result.
In net, Jake Oettinger struggled a bit in the second round. After a great opening series against the Minnesota Wild, Oettinger posted below a .900 save percentage in four of seven starts against Seattle. Still though, he was good in Game 7 when he needed to be and it's tough to bet against him after the season he had. Oettinger posted a .919 save percentage across 62 regular season games, and even with Hill playing well, Dallas has the advantage in goal.
The Stars will also enter the series with the highest-operating playoff power play of any team remaining. Their penalty kill has also seen success, operating at 83 percent.
Prediction
This is a series that could really go either way. Both teams can score, the Golden Knights have the better defense group, and the Stars has the goaltending edge.
Vegas has had more deep playoff runs since entering the league, but haven't been able to close out the job late in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Dallas has continued to establish themselves as a threat over the last few years.
It's hard to bet against Vegas though, especially coming off the win over Edmonton. While it's set to be another close series, the Golden Knights should be looked at as slight favourites over the Stars in their second Western Conference Final matchup in four years.
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