The Green Bay Packers are desperate to get to the next step.
Matt LaFleur's team has made it to consecutive NFC Championship Games, only to come up short on both occasions. Star quarterback Aaron Rodgers had arguably the best season of his decorated career, but it still wasn't enough to power the Packers to a Super Bowl. The question facing the team this offseason is: what are the moves necessary to get another Lombardi Trophy?
Green Bay faces some big choices. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will not return in that role after his contract expired at the end of the season, and the Packers need to find a replacement.
Then there's free agency. Star running back Aaron Jones hits the open market as an unrestricted free agent, as does veteran center Corey Linsley. Most of the key defensive starters are still under contract, but the Packers will likely need to find a replacement for cornerback Kevin King, who is all but guaranteed to depart after an underwhelming tenure with the team and a disastrous NFC title game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
But the Packers are in a tough spot in terms of needing to manifest cap space. Green Bay has the 28th-most cap space entering the offseason, per Over The Cap. Perhaps the team will restructure Rodgers' contract, but cuts are almost certainly necessary.
There are some intriguing candidates in this regard.
Who might Green Bay look to cut?
A closer look at Green Bay's books shows relative inflexibility in terms of players they could cut. In fact, the best way to save money would technically be to cut Davante Adams which, uh, is not happening.
Cutting Za'Darius Smith is not in the cards, either. Smith has made the Pro Bowl in each of his two seasons with the Packers, racking up 26 combined sacks and finishing the 2020 season with a career-high four forced fumbles. The 28-year-old is a defensive cog up front and would also carry a $10 million dead-cap hit. He is not going anywhere.
Preston Smith was a bit of a disappointment after a 12-sack campaign in 2019, but he has an $8 million dead-cap hit. Safety Adrian Amos would cost more against the dead cap than he would net in cap savings in the event the team cut him.
Defensively, the Packers could move on from Christian Kirksey. The 28-year-old was terrific for Green Bay when healthy, with 77 combined tackles, 2.0 sacks and a pair of interceptions in 11 games. But the games played looms large, as Kirksey has a history of injuries and spent a chunk of 2020 on injured reserve.
Kirskey carries a $2 million dead-cap penalty, but cutting him would also save the Packers over $5.6 million against the salary cap. He also struggled quite a bit in coverage, which might justify Green Bay looking elsewhere for linebackers.
As for the offensive unit, there are not a whole lot of options.
Green Bay could move on from Ricky Wagner, as cutting Wagner would save $4.25 million against the salary cap. But the 31-year-old played a vital role for the Packers down the stretch, starting the final seven games (including playoffs) as the right tackle. Plus, given the possible departure of Linsley and Lane Taylor, the Packers are likely to retain depth on the offensive line.
Interestingly, the most feasible cut could be at the position the Packers appear to have the biggest need: Wide receiver.
Bye bye, MVS?
It might not be a surprise should the Packers choose to cut ties with Marquez Valdes-Scantling this offseason.
On the surface, such a move might seem foolish. As previously mentioned, the Packers figure to add at wide receiver, rather than subtract. Plus, Valdes-Scantling can be a game-breaker with his ability to take the top off opposing secondaries.
Valdes-Scantling led the NFL at 20.9 yards per reception this past season. He also tallied a career-high six receiving touchdowns. The 26-year-old was particularly prolific in the NFC Championship loss to the Buccaneers, hauling in four receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown.
But there are plenty of reasons to suggest MVS is a cut candidate.
For starters, Valdes-Scantling's dead-cap hit is just under $55,000, while cutting him would save nearly $2.2 million against the cap. Plus, are the Packers really wiling to hitch their cart to MVS as a No. 2 guy opposite Adams?
Valdes-Scantling has had a problem with drops in the past, and he had seven more this season, per Pro Football Reference. The 11.1 drop percentage was the highest of his career.
Sure, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is still a young receiver. The drops can be fixed. But is he much more than a deep threat at this stage of his career?
Allen Lazard is every bit as capable of being Green Bay's top deep threat, and he had more success creating separation this season. Drops are also a problem for Lazard — an exclusive rights free agent this offseason — but he might be the better option as a true No. 2 going forward.
How to proceed
Cutting Marquez Valdes-Scantling might be Green Bay's best option (in the immediate sense) in creating some cap space while also avoiding excessive dead-cap penalties.
The Packers can account for Valdes-Scantling's departure by taking advantage of the 2021 draft being incredibly deep at receiver. They should be able to nab a top pass-catcher at the end of the first round, if they so choose.
There are also some interesting free-agent options.
It will be tough for the Packers to create enough space to sign elite guys like Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin or Kenny Golladay. But what about someone like Josh Reynolds?
The Los Angeles Rams wideout had steadier production in his first season as a full-time starter. Reynolds will be 26 in February and is quite capable of making home-run catches. He was also more sure-handed this season.
Of course, much of Green Bay's ability to navigate in free agency will be dependent on the market and how youngsters like Reynolds fare, especially with other teams needing impact wideouts. Not to mention, the potential of re-signing Jones or Linsley looming large.
Still, teams do not often have fairly clear-cut pathways to adding cap space. Cutting Marquez Valdes-Scantling is one such pathway for the Packers, even if they would have to then make moves to supplement depth at wide receiver.
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