When Odell Beckham Jr. was traded to the Cleveland Browns, many assumed that the 25-year-old Sterling Shepard would fill in his role as the New York Giants No. 1 receiver. When the team then gave Shepard a four-year $41 million extension, that was reaffirmed. But is he suited to live up to the lofty expectations given to him by the team and fans alike?
Yes and no.
Let's start with the “no” first and explain why he won't be able to fill in for Beckham Jr. seamlessly. Late in 2018 season, Shepard found himself in the No. 1 role for the Giants. From weeks 13-17, OBJ was out, and Shepard filled in, but his stats didn't take the jump many expected them to.
In the last four games of the 2018 season, Shepard tallied 14 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown on a lowly 45.2% catch rate. In the 12 games that he played with Beckham Jr., he tallied 52 catches for 638 yards and three touchdowns on a high 68.42% catch rate. If we convert those games to full seasons, Shepard's receiving lines would like this:
- With Beckham Jr.: 65/797/4
- Without Beckham Jr.: 56/936/4
Without Beckham Jr. in-fold, Shepard's box-score numbers go up slightly, but his catch rate took a massive hit. That's not a fluke. Defenses played the Giants differently without the outside speed threat of OBJ. The Giants couldn't spread the field vertically, which in turn, meant that defenses could close in on Shepard and Saquon Barkley. Though they may be able to spread the field with a healthy Evan Engram in-fold; that's for a later date.
However, that's not entirely why I don't think Shepard will be able to live up to lofty expectations. Historically, Shepard has been negated to a slot role, which he does well. But, we haven't seen him play on the outside consistently, in turn, hurting his versatility.
But his game, that primarily is in the slot, is able to transfer to the outside; that's where the “yes” stems from.
The Giants' signing of Golden Tate indicates that they see the same. Why? Both Tate and Shepard have a very similar skillset that stems from creating separation on the inside and scorching defenses with creativity and speed after the catch. Tate has seen plenty of snaps on the outside, but at 30 years old, he'll probably be relegated to the slot.
Moving Tate to the slot should mean that the Giants will play Shepard on the outside more often. That becomes truer when you factor in their lack of outside receivers on the roster. But can he do it?
Probably. Shepard's game will always thrive in the slot. He has one of the best release packages in the NFL, and his YAC ability is amongst the best in the league. Because of this, Giants' head coach Pat Shurmur must utilize him time-to-time on the inside. But, he's not limited to it.
Shepard does have good speed, running a 4.48 second 40-yard dash, meaning, we will see him as that field stretcher too. That should be a plus on the outside, but even more so, his press-beating techniques, full route-tree, and quickness will be strengths at the position.
Shepard's game is versatile, we haven't seen it much, but he can play on the outside. But, maybe more important, his quarterback. Eli Manning's arm has notably diminished, as he's gone for a more conservative approach (almost to a fault) in his passing that utilizes the shorter routes. As for their No. 6 overall pick Daniel Jones, he has the same traits, but his fresher arm should mean more down-field throws.
The difference between the two will shape Shepard's season. If Manning plays, we can expect to see Shepard do what he does best both on the outside or inside — run horizontal routes to set up YAC. If Jones plays, Shepard will have to diversify his game and run more vertical stems.
At the end of the day, Shepard is a slot receiver; it's what he's known for. He will surely see more targets than he has before. He will see a lot of these in his more natural position, but he will also need to show that he can play on the outside. If he can do so consistently, Shepard could break out in 2019. If not, the Giants will still have one of the best slots in the NFL, but they won't reap the benefits of Shepard's potentially well-rounded game.
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