James Harden is used to having haters. But it seems like the hate-buzzards may be circling him a bit prematurely in the season's early going. The NBA made some important adjustments to the rule book this offseason, and it turned The Beard into a bit of a “poster boy” for new rule changes, if you ask Brooklyn Nets coach Steve Nash.
The Nets (5-3) have been led by the MVP-level play of Kevin Durant, who continues staking a forceful claim as the best player in the world. Harden, on the other hand, has struggled at times. The 2018 MVP is averaging 18.3 points—his lowest per game total since his third season in the league, ten years ago—to go along with just under nine assists and seven rebounds per game. He is shooting 4.8 free throws per game, down from the career-high 11.8 freebies he put up during his final full season with Houston Rockets.
So how worried should fans be? According to Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report, league insiders think he could be trending downwards, and quickly.
Many league insiders contacted by B/R agreed there's truth to what Harden is saying—that officials are perhaps overcorrecting in the early stages of this season. Referees will likely find an equilibrium. There's an expectation among analytics staffers that scorers' free-throw numbers will likely improve over time.
But Harden's slow start has drawn the attention of skeptical league personnel who wonder whether this is the beginning of the perennial MVP candidate's decline into more of a secondary All-Star.
Other observers believe Harden's conditioning is the main factor in his depressed stats.
Are officials “setting the tone” early in the year, but will eventually regress back towards calling more fouls? It seems like these analytics staffers expect that.
Nash weighed in following the team's home-opener, a loss to the upstart Charlotte Hornets. At that point, Harden was only averaging a measly 3.0 free throws per contest.
“They’re hyper aware of [Harden] reaching for guys' arms,” explained Nash, “but [defenders] aren’t set and they're getting caught not in a legal guarding position, bumping him. That’s a foul. That has nothing to do with the hands. Those are the ones I take a little exception to, but James will get there…I think they’re hypersensitive to some of these things right now, it usually goes back towards the middle and we’ll find a nice balance.”
It sounded like Nash might agree with the analytics folks that things will change.
Harden bounced back with a statement 19 free throw attempts in the Nets' subsequent win over the Indiana Pacers, scoring a season-high 29 points. He followed that up with his first triple-double of the season in Brooklyn's victory over the Detroit Pistons.
But he only took four total freebies in the last two contests. Is he concerned that he'll have to change his game up?
“I don’t really like, think about it,” explained Harden following the most recent win over the Atlanta Hawks. “I just try to play basketball. That’s everybody else who makes big deals out of it and talks about it…I don’t really focus on, you know, how the game is officiated. Each game is different.”
What does he focus on?
“For me I feel like just constant communication with officials,” the nine-time All-Star continued. “Seeing what their view is and telling them what my view is and telling them what I see. Constant communication. I watch other games and games are officiated other ways. So that’s out of my control, out of my hands. I go out there and just play and hoop.”
What about the view of skeptics who believe James is headed for “secondary All-Star” status?
To that end, it sounds like nobody in Brooklyn would agree. After all, Harden just declined a monster extension essentially taking the gamble he'll earn record-setting salary numbers next summer.
And Nash has spoken at length about how little basketball his superstar got to play during the offseason because of his hamstring rehab.
“It’s just the cards he’s dealt,” said Nash back in October. “He’s played very little basketball for, I keep saying six months, I don’t know it might be seven, eight depending how far back we go to whenever that hamstring injury first happened, but it’s really hard to play at the level he’s accustomed to playing at when you’ve played such little basketball.”
For now, Harden will continue to try to stay aggressive and play himself back into peak form. The team can hope that officials call fouls more like they used to last season. In my opinion, the foul call pendulum will swing a bit because the league loves to reward offense; he won't get back to 11-plus attempts per game but he should settle in towards roughly six.
These changes are here to stay and Harden shouldn't expect to get away with the tricks he used to rely on.
The bigger issue is probably his trust in that hamstring. Is he thinking about it when he drives? These are issues of confidence, rhythm and conditioning. My guess is we'll see him return to an All-NBA level around February or March. But Harden may need to invent a few new moves.
Either way, the haters will continue keeping a close watch for any signs of decline.
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