Kansas City will travel to New Orleans Sunday afternoon, giving us a possible preview of Super Bowl LV when the Chiefs meet the Saints. Though the squads have spent the majority of the season as the prohibitive favorites in each of their respective conferences, the two teams will enter the contest on their back heel.
Enduring a loss last week to the beleaguered Philadelphia Eagles, the Saints are hoping for a bounce back performance thanks to the return of quarterback Drew Brees. Despite having gone an impressive 3-1 in the veteran's absence, New Orleans' historically high-octane offense has looked rather pedestrian as of late, renewing fears over the team's ability to compete in the postseason. While the presence of Brees will likely alleviate some of those concerns, the 41-year old's ability to pace the offense only a month after fracturing his rib cage, and puncturing a lung, will be under scrutiny.
As for the Chiefs, their sloppy victory over the Miami Dolphins–while exhilarating–has once again brought into the spotlight, questions over their proclivity for falling behind early. Already known for their high-wire act performances, Kansas City has so far this season, been forced to operate without the stout defense that provided a safety net last year on their way to the Lombardi Trophy. Add into the mix Patrick Mahomes' career-worst, three turnover performance against the Dolphins, and the Chiefs' margin for error suddenly appears slimmer than originally thought, if their superhero QB continues to have moments of humanity.
While both teams should still be considered within the top echelon of contenders heading into the playoffs, the loser of Sundays' game will almost certainly have those concerns amplified. With that in mind, here are our four bold predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs, as they take on the New Orleans Saints in week 15.
1. The Chiefs avoid an early deficit
The ability to overcome any lead, is a trait Kansas City would likely be content possessing in the abstract, rather than being forced to utilize it week in and week out. Despite pacing the league with a +122 point differential, it could be argued that the Chiefs have actually underperformed this season when it comes to their point spread, due to their weekly habit of trailing opponents heading into the second half. Having faced a deficit in nine of their 13 games this season, the Chiefs are as dependent on the late game performances of Patrick Mahomes as they ever have been.
Facing a New Orleans Saints' team that is particularly effective at playing with the lead, expect Andy Reid to come out firing early Sunday afternoon for the Chiefs.
Led by quarterback Taysom Hill in Brees' absence, New Orleans utilized their strong offensive line to pound the ball on the ground, gaining an average of over 177 rushing yards over the last month; a full 40-yards over their yearly average. While the return of Brees will likely allow the scoring unit to operate with more diversity in their attack, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sean Payton stick with the conservative approach, switching out his veteran QB for Hill on certain plays, in order to slow walk Brees' recovery.
Should the Chiefs sprint out to an early lead however, all those plans might be for naught.
Forced to play from behind, New Orleans would no longer be afforded the opportunity to dominate time of possession the way they have grown accustomed, forcing Brees to drop back and pass in greater volume than the Saints would otherwise prefer. While obtaining an early advantage is always easier said than done, the Chiefs' ability to score more than their average six points in the opening quarter, could be the difference between an easy victory, and a wire-to-wire slugfest.
2. Chiefs rock Drew Brees with three sacks
Assuming Kansas City is successful in scoring early and often against the Saints, look for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to dial up the pressure on New Orleans' play caller. Though the Chiefs have had limited success getting to the quarterback on the year–ranking a mere 21st in sack percentage–Spags may opt to allow his secondary to play in man-to-man coverage against the Saints' deep threats, as a means of buying time for his pass rush to get to the hobbled Brees.
While dangerous–potentially opening up a breakaway touchdown should the Saints' wideouts get space downfield–the strategy could also force running back Alvin Kamara to drop back as a blocker. One of the most dangerous threats in any backfield thanks to his superb catching skills, the Chiefs lack a defender capable of matching up with the MVP-candidate. Unable to mitigate his production once he gets the ball in space, Kansas City has to find a way to limit his options. Forcing him to serve as a secondary defender for Brees against an onslaught of rushers might do the trick.
If Chris Jones and Frank Clark are ever going to dominate a game for the Chiefs, now would be the perfect time.
3. Patrick Mahomes shreds the Saints' secondary
Just as the Chiefs lack a single man to matchup with Alvin Kamara, so too, do the Saints lack a defender to limit wide receiver Tyreek Hill or tight end Travis Kelce. Despite only allowing an outstanding 209 passing yards per game–good for fourth in the league–New Orleans' secondary is built on depth rather than any singular standout talent. To compensate, the Saints feature Cam Jordan as the centerpiece of their pass rush, shooting the defensive end around the edge to harass opposing QB's ,while the secondary holds the line against receivers.
While Jordan should figure prominently in the New Orleans' game plan Sunday afternoon, the beauty of the Chiefs' offense is its ability to adapt. Lacking the offensive line to prevent Jordan from getting around, Kansas City should implement screen action, up-tempo plays to mitigate the damage the Saints' pass rush can inflict. Though it might look different than the deep throws we have grown accustomed to seeing from the Chiefs on highlight reels, operating with a quick trigger should allow for the collective talent of the Kansas City receiving corps, to outshine a secondary that has schemed its way to success.
4. The Chiefs win 28-18
It goes without saying that 2020 has been an odd year. For Andy Reid and Sean Payton, even more so.
Long known for the brilliance of his offensive mind, Payton has been tasked this season with a team that so far, has succeeded based upon its defensive output and conservative play calling. Meanwhile, Reid has been forced to confront time management issues that in the past have been the bane of his existence, as the Chiefs have navigated multiple second half comebacks. Their continued success then is even more impressive when considering the obstacles they've faced this season, and should provide room for optimism as both squads head into the postseason.
Unfortunately for Sean Payton and the Saints, it's doubtful that optimism will help them Sunday.
Playing with an injured quarterback for the first time in four weeks, New Orleans will be unable to keep pace against an offense that is historically great. While it very well may prove to be a different story come February, look for the Chiefs to earn the victory thanks to a dominate first half performance.
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