Over the summer, the Dallas Mavericks proved just how much they believe in Kristaps Porzingis by giving him a five-year, $158 million max extension. The Mavs have put all their eggs on the Porzingis basket, as they remain fully committed to the notion of the 7-foot-3 big man being their team's cornerstone superstar for the foreseeable future.
As we all know, Porzingis sat out the entirety of last season due to a left ACL injury that required surgery, and that he has actually yet to make his Dallas debut despite being with the team for close to three quarters of a year now. Nonetheless, all signs are pointing to the fact that Porzingis will be ready to start the 2019-20 campaign with his new team. Below, we have three bold predictions on what we should all expect from the 24-year-old in his first year with the Mavs.
Extreme Load Management
We fully expect Mavericks owner Mark Cuban and the rest of the team to take an extremely cautious approach when it comes to their prized star. An ACL tear is one of the worst injuries any player can suffer, and even more so for a big man like Porzingis. Therefore, it will almost be a certainty that the Mavs will apply some form of minutes limitation for the Latvian national, and that the same will be followed strictly. We're probably looking at a hard minutes cap for Porzingis for at least the first month of the season.
Moving forward, he will be in danger of missing back-to-back sets, and an occasional maintenance day would likely be the norm on his first season back from a serious injury. Last season, the Toronto Raptors did a tremendous job in managing Kawhi Leonard's load, with the reigning Finals MVP playing in only 60 regular season contests. This could be a model the Mavs might be more than willing to consider for Porzingis.
Career-High Marks
Despite the lack of games, though, we still believe that Prozingis will have a tremendous debut season with the Mavericks. Kristaps was an All-Star in the 2017-18 season, where he averaged a career-high 22.7 points in 32.4 minutes per contest, but at this point, we don't believe he will be able to eclipse either marks this coming campaign.
However, we are still predicting that Porzingis will be able to set a couple of new career-high numbers other than scoring. He has averaged 7.1 rebounds per game throughout his two and a half seasons in the league (he grabbed a career-low 6.6 boards in the 2017-18 season prior to his injury), and this is certainly something he can improve on as a 7-footer. Kristaps put on a ton of muscle over the past months, and we expect him to be more aggressive in the paint, thereby potentially lifting his rebounding numbers.
Porzingis also appears to have been working on his inside game, which will likely give his field goal shooting a significant boost. He is a career 43.7-percent shooter — again, quite disappointing for a man his size — and this is definitely a mark he can better in the 2019-20 season.
Misses Out on an All-Star Nod
If all goes according to plan for Porzingis and the Mavs — and barring any unwanted injury setbacks — then the former fourth overall pick should have an outstanding year with Dallas this term. Nonetheless, we don't think it will be enough to earn him a spot in the All-Star team.
Unfortunately for Porzingis, he will now be up against so much more talent in the Western Conference, and guys like Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, and Karl-Anthony Towns will likely remain above him in the pecking order. As a matter of fact, a Rudy Gobert or a LaMarcus Aldridge might even be able to edge him out. Things would have been different if Porzingis were still out East with the New York Knicks, but as we all know, the West is a whole different monster.
An All-Star injury reserve spot might be the best-case scenario for Porzingis this season, and odds are, his new teammate Luka Doncic might even make the trip to Chicago for the All-Star weekend ahead of Porzingis. This might not be the year for Kristaps, but we're pretty sure he will still make a few more All-Star teams down the road.
The Porzingis-Doncic duo is going to be amazing for the Mavs, and the 2019-20 campaign will mark the start of a new era for this franchise. However, it's not likely that Dallas will be able to force their way into a playoff spot in a ruthless Western Conference this coming season. They might go on a surprise run towards the tail end of the season, but it's hard to imagine the Mavs finishing above the likes of the Portland Trail Blazers or the San Antonio Spurs.
For now, Porzingis and company will need to wait at least another year before we start talking about the Mavs as a serious contender for the NBA title.
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