The NBA free agency is undoubtedly one of the few bright spots of the NBA Off-season. Players switching teams and thus shift the power in the Association. Without a doubt, it is one of the most anticipated time spans for every NBA fan out there. On July 1st, the moratorium begins – allowing free agents to reach verbal agreements with teams. However, in 2015, the Dallas Mavericks had to learn the hard way that those verbal agreements are essentially meaningless, as teams are only eligible to sign players from July 6th on.
In 2018, contracts of some of the NBA's most talented players will come to an end, allowing them to test their value on the free agent market: DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George, Isaiah Thomas, even Kevin Durant could opt-out of his contract with the Golden State Warriors – even though it seems highly unlikely at this point. Nevertheless, headlining this upcoming free agency is obviously LeBron James. While the four-time MVP and three-time NBA champion has a player option that would allow him to stay with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2018-2019 season, it is expected that he will opt-out of his contract once free agency comes around.
James, who will be 33 years old by the time, will probably sign his last long-term deal in 2018, making the decision, about where he wants to continue his professional career, even more severe. Now, LeBron James may be accused of many things but a lack of confidence in his abilities as a businessman is not usually one of them. Because at the end of the day, this is what the decision about his future team will come down to – business. Despite growing up in Akron, Ohio and expressing his strong bond to the people in Ohio, James left the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2010 to join the Miami Heat.
Four seasons and two championships later, the “Chosen One” announced his return to the Cavs, leaving the franchise that helped him capture his first NBA championship with nothing but a roster that would go nowhere in the near future. Neither of those decisions were personal, they were business decisions. James decided to leave the Cavs because he wanted to win. The Miami Heat gave him the best opportunity to do so. In 2014, after losing to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA finals, LeBron looked at the players around him and did not see himself winning another championship in Miami. He went home; where a young, emerging team with Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson and a trade-able asset in Andrew Wiggins looked very promising. Therefore, do not expect James' decision in 2018 to suddenly be based on personal feelings or emotional attachments.
According to Maverick Carter, LeBron James’ business partner and friend, someone like LeBron can be known and be a star from anywhere in the world. While a market like Los Angeles would certainly allow Nike to sell a few more signature shoes and seems more plausible for James' endeavor to pursue a career in Hollywood after his NBA career is over, Carter made clear that “even if he played in L.A. and wanted to be in a movie, he can't shoot from basically September to June.” Indeed, given the NBA schedule and James' expectation to reach the finals every year, it would not make a difference whether he plays for the Cavaliers, the Lakers or even the Brooklyn Nets.
LeBron James wants to win and his decision will be based solely on that. So, what options does “King James” actually have? Let us look at the teams that are most likely.
The Los Angeles Lakers drafted Lonzo Ball with the second pick and have talented pieces to lure James to the prestigious franchise, including Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson. Now, while the team is not playing good basketball so far this season, there is no denying that they have the talent to be really good in the upcoming years. Additionally, the Lakers would have the cap space to sign another high-caliber player to the team. However, as hopeful as Lakers fans seem to be at this point, that they can actually bring James to Los Angeles, in reality, the chances are actually not that high.
First of all, nobody knows what Lonzo Ball and the other players will turn out to be. They are future prospects – and with every prospect comes a risk. Does anyone really think that a calculated individual like LeBron will take the risk of playing with a bunch of players that did not turn out the way everyone expected, just to miss the playoffs or barely make it to the 8th seed? Now, if we pretend that there is no risk involved and they all will eventually reach their full potential – it most certainly will not be within the next 2-3 years. Lonzo Ball will be in his second year, Brandon Ingram in his third. LeBron James wants to win now, not in 2-3 years when his teammates are ready to make a deep run in the playoffs.
When he returned to Cleveland, he said he expects it to take some time until they are ready to compete for a championship. Turned out, they immediately made it to the NBA finals. But they did it with a more experienced Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in an Eastern Conference that was mediocre at best. Plus, LeBron was 29 at that time. One year of losing early in the playoffs would not have been as severe as it would be if it happens in 2019; the championship window is closing for the king.
Finally, assuming that LeBron ignores all of this, and the Lakers go out and bring Paul George to the team (since this is the scenario everyone is projecting) – does this Lakers team really pose a threat to the juggernaut that is Golden State? Do they even make it to the Western Conference finals with San Antonio, Houston and perhaps Oklahoma City in their way? LeBron James, Paul George, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and a bunch of role players? That does not win you anything in today's NBA, certainly not in the Western Conference. So, however you want to slice it – the Lakers are not the ideal destination for LeBron James if winning is his top priority for the years to come.
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