Few organizations in professional sports have the allure that the Los Angeles Lakers have. It's why things are taken to another level if one wants to have a discussion about the idea of Lonzo Ball potentially leaving the sport with a huge legacy. After all, being a Lakers great, is a lot harder than being one for almost any other NBA franchise.
What other NBA team could average 25 wins over a five-year span and land LeBron James, without having other stars in place to help him win another coveted championship?
Whether LeBron made his decision based on all of the amenities that the City of Angels has to offer, or he wants to follow in the footsteps of Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the like, his jersey could very well be the next one hoisted up at the Staples Center.
When LeBron joins a team, he – fairly – takes on the moniker of “franchise player.” Yet heading into the 16th season of his career, instead of joining other All-Stars he'll be leading a group of blue chip prospects, guys who were considered the franchise cornerstones for this Lakers team up until about two weeks ago.
Whether or not LeBron becomes the 11th Lakers player to have his jersey retired, all eyes will be on Lonzo Ball the next few months, if not years.
Sure, entering his third season in the league, Brandon Ingram will be counted on to be a Robin of sorts to LeBron's Batman as a scorer, but Ball comes with hype both on and off the court, and will be counted on to be a shot-maker and creator to take some pressure off of LeBron.
Taking into account that Ingram is seemingly the Lakers' shiniest object as far as trade bait goes, Ball's range of outcomes in terms of expectations could truly vary. With that said, despite his rookie year shooting struggles, here's what we need to see Lonzo do if he wants to be the next Lakers legend.
Make no mistake about it, the most important number that Lonzo Ball needs to retire with will be correlated with the championships he will – or won't – win. The only player in franchise history to have his jersey retired without winning a championship was Elgin Baylor, who just so happened to average 27.4 points and 13.5 rebounds per game, making ten All-NBA First Team selections.
Again, we're talking about joining the likes of Magic, Shaq, Wilt, Kareem, The Logo (Jerry West for you newer folks) and Kobe. It's hard to see Lonzo Ball reaching an MVP-level the way those players all did, so comparatively speaking, let's look at the less overwhelming (with the most due respect) all-time greats in Lakers history:
In nine seasons with the Lakers, Gail Goodrich won a championship and made four All-Star teams, averaging 21.6 points, 4.7 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game. He was also named First Team All-NBA for one of those seasons. Relatively similarly, in eight seasons in L.A., Jamaal Wilkes averaged 18.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game, averaging over 20 points per game in both playoff runs that resulted in Lakers' gold. The defensive specialist only played in two All-Star games with the Lakers.
Considering Lonzo Ball averaged 10.2 points, 7.2 assists and 6.9 rebounds (not to mention 1.7 steals) in a season that was hampered by injuries, it seems more likely he winds up closer to Goodrich and Wilkes, and maybe more of a James Worthy type who plays a larger role, than being an MVP-level player. After all, the Lakers were 24-28 in the games Ball played, as he made his impact felt on both ends of the court.
Perhaps surprisingly, the one area that Lonzo really struggled was shooting the basketball. Yeah, coming into the league there were fair questions about his shooting mechanics, but we're talking about a player shooting 55.1-percent from the field and 41.2-percent from three in college faltering to 36-percent from the field and 30.5-percent from three as a rookie. Maybe his poor free-throw shooting should have served as a warning that his shot wouldn't seamlessly translate to the NBA (Ball shot 67.3 from the charity stripe in college, and a woeful 45.1-percent last season), but Lonzo being able to combine great passing vision, underrated athleticism, and the ability to stretch the floor with his shooting was what made him such a highly touted prospect.
Maybe playing with LeBron, and being healthy, will increase his confidence and ability to make shots this season. But even if it takes him a couple of years – he'll just be turning 21 at the beginning of the 2018-19 season – to improve his jumper, Lonzo already brings enough to the table to start building his resume, especially if the Lakers can win some games and make noise in the playoffs with LeBron.
Beyond just being 6-foot-6, Ball's already a very good rebounder for a guard. Ben Simmons, Lauri Markkanen and John Collins were the only rookies to average more boards per game than Ball, with Simmons being the only neophyte to track more assists per game. Ben Simmons was drafted in 2016…you know the rest of the joke.
It was also encouraging that the Lakers defended at a higher level with Lonzo Ball in the lineup, as they only gave up a 104.1 defensive rating with Lonzo on the court, versus a 106.8 rating with him sitting (per NBA.com). For what it's worth, that 104.1 points per 100 possessions would've been good for eighth best defense in the league if the Lakers posted it for the entire season.
Alright, enough convincing you that Lonzo's already a good player, back to assessing what he needs to do to get his number two in the rafters and be considered an all-time great for a franchise that has more of them than anyone else.
There's no algorithm – at least not that I have access to – to project Lonzo's stats for the next few years, but it's safe to assume that last season was his floor. Granted it was easier to compile stats on a losing team than it will be in a competitive environment, but it's hard to fathom he's going to shoot worse than he did last season.
If last year was an indicator, we can imagine Lonzo Ball to be in a similar neighborhood for the next couple of seasons. At the end of his career, it doesn't seem unrealistic to think he can post a line in the neighborhood of 13-16 points, 7-9 assists, and 6.5-9 rebounds per game. It will be interesting to see how all three of those categories are impacted by LeBron, one of the most well-rounded players in NBA history who has averaged almost nine rebounds and nine assists per game the last two season.
Taking the median of those projections, and it's fair to ballpark a 14.5 point, 8 assist, 7.5 rebound per game statline from Lonzo. And that's based off of what SHOULD be the worst season of his career.
On it's surface, that's a great line that (rational) Lakers fans would probably sign up for, but without a championship ring or two, it's probably not enough to get his jersey retired.
With a franchise that values winning the way the Lakers do, a place that great players go to win championships, Lonzo, like LeBron, knows it's not about counting stats, it's about counting rings. If Lonzo Ball is able to win one or two of them, with or without LeBron, it will cement his legacy.
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