The first tip-off in the South Region features a 4-13 match-up as Furman faces off against Virginia in Orlando, Florida. It is time to continue our March Madness odds series with a Furman-Virginia prediction and pick.
The Furman Paladins make their first trip to the big dance since 1980 after winning the SoCon tournament and clinching the automatic bid. Virginia returns to the tournament after missing in 2022 and making their 25th appearance all time. UVA is coming off a ten-point loss as the two seed to Duke in the ACC Finals but managed to grab the four seed in the South Region.
Here are the Furman-Virginia March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Furman-Virginia Odds
Furman: +5.5 (-108)
UVA: -5.5 (-112)
Over: 131.5 (-115)
Under: 131.5 (-105)
How To Watch Furman vs. Virginia
TV: TruTV
Stream: NCAA March Madness App
Time: 12:40 PM ET/ 9:15 AM PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Furman Could Cover The Spread
While teams have focused on one-and-done players in recent years, records show that experience can still win in March. Furman has that experience, with their top six guys in terms of minutes being two seniors, two juniors, a sophomore and a freshman. This is also a team that has played together, as only one player on the roster is a transfer. That player is Carter Whitt, who averaged 12.8 minutes per game as a transfer from Wake Forest.
Furman is led by SoCon player of the year Jalen Slawson, who was second on the team in scoring at 15.7 points per game, while he led the team with 7.1 rebounds per game, 1.6 steals per game, and 1.6 blocks per game. Slawson is a plus defender, great on the boards, and can go both inside, and beyond the arc. The SoCon leading scorer is also on this roster in Mike Bothwell, who has 18.0 points per game while shooting 51.9% from the field. Sophomore guard JP Pegues rounds out the primary scorers for this team, and is the primary assist man, leading the team in assists with 4.0 per game.
Furman ranked 33rd in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. This was just above teams such as Maryland, NC State, and right behind one of the tournament favorites in Kansas. Furman has the offensive power and prowess to pull the upset. Their defense is a concern though. With a ranking of 186th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, only six teams in the field of 68 are lower, and all of them are lower seeds than Furman. If Furman can get a little from their defense and keep that offensive efficiency against a UVA squad that is 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency, they are primed to pull an upset.
Why Virginia Could Cover The Spread
Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers squad returns to the NCAA Tournament after a trip to the NIT in 2022. It seems that this team is far removed from their title run in 2019 though. The 2020 tournament was canceled and the 2021 team exited in the first round after not being able to practice due to Covid. For a team that is based in efficiency, timing, and defense, not being able to practice is a killer.
UVA is a popular pick to be upset, and recent history may give insight as to why. In that 2021 season, UVA was a four-seed and lost to 13 Ohio. 2019 was their title run, but in 2018 they became the first one seed to lose to a 16. The year before that saw a narrow escape as the five seed against UNC Wilmington, before losing to a four-seeded Florida. The year before that was an Elite Eight run, but it was ended by a 10 seed.
This year’s squad is based on defense. They rank 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, and come in with a player who tied for the lead in the ACC in steals. Reece Beekman was second in the conference in steals, but also third in the conference in assists this season. Beekman is the current ACC Defensive player of the year and will be most likely be matched up with Bothwell from Furman. Also on defense is Kadin Shedrick, whose 1.3 blocks per game was fifth in the ACC. This should be of concern for any team trying to go inside.
Efficiency was also key on offense. Going into February, this UVA squad was averaging over 1.1 points per possession, but that has continued to go down since then. This is highlighted by the .80 points per possession total in their ACC Championship game loss to Duke. If the Wahoos can get back to being efficient on offense, and slow down the Furman attack, they can walk away with an easy first-round win.
Final Furman-Virginia Prediction & Pick
Furman has won games by going into shootouts and coming out on top. They play fast-paced and are an offense-first team. Furman is 124th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, which is 26th among the 68th tournament teams. On the other hand, Virginia is 360 out of 363 teams in Division I, and dead last among the teams in the field. Furman in the sense of adjusted efficiency is most similar to UVA's ACC foe in Wake Forest, and while the Wahoos beat Wake in January, Wake is not nearly the offense that Furman is. Furman has the firepower to keep this one close, and while an upset may not happen, a cover will.
Final Furman-Virginia Prediction & Pick: Furman +5.5 (-108)
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