The San Diego State Aztecs have shocked everybody and are playing in the National Championship game Monday night. Let's continue our March Madness odds series with a Lamont Butler over/under points prediction and pick for the tournament final.
Lamont Butler is the literal reason San Diego State is in the National Championship game. He made the buzzer beating shot in the Final Four to give the Aztecs the win over Florida Atlantic. Butler has been an integral part of the success San Diego State is enjoying right now. He has 10 points per game in the tournament with 3.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists as well. In their one point win over Creighton in the Elite Eight, Butler had 18 points on 72.7 percent shooting in 30 minutes. Throughout the tournament, Butler has shot 51.3 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from deep.
Butler and the Aztecs have a tough task ahead of them as they take on UCONN in the title game.
Here are the March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel
March Madness Odds – Lamont Butler over/under points
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-106)
Why Lamont Butler can hit the over
All season, Butler has been the third leading scorer for San Diego State with 8.7 points per game. That alone is more than the 8.5 points his prop is set at. Butler has also been shooting well during the tournament. As mentioned, Butler is shooting over 50 percent from the field and over 35 percent from three. If the junior guard can keep this up, he should not have a problem scoring nine points.
In the five previous games of the NCAA tournament, Butler has had nine or more points in three of those. This includes his last two games. UCONN has been scoring a whole bunch of points, so if the Aztecs want to win this game, it will not be on the defensive side of the court. San Diego State is going to have to get hot and out shoot UCONN. The Huskies have allowed 11 different guards to score nine or more points in their five tournament games. If Lamont Butler keeps shooting well, he will hit the over on this prop.
Why Lamont Butler can hit the under
UCONN has been playing the best defense of any team in the tournament. Only two teams have scored over 60 points against them. The best a team has done against UCONN shooting wise is 38.8 percent from the field. Butler is going to have to work for his shots, and he will have to make some contested shots if he wants to score points in this game. The defense UCONN plays is agressive and tough to beat, so Lamont Butler and San Diego State will have their work cut out for them.
Butler only takes 7.8 shots per game in the tournament. He does not mind passing on some shots to try and find a better one. Besides the Creighton game, Butler has not been the main shot taker for San Diego State. He does not want to take contested shots, but he will have to if he wants to score in this game. UCONN will rarely leave a shooter open, especially in their tournament games.
Final prediction and pick on Lamont Butler over/under points
It is going to be a tough game for San Diego State. UCONN plays tough defense, and Butler needed a buzzer beater to score nine points in the Final Four. UCONN should dominate this game on defense, and frustrate the Aztec players.
Final prediction and pick on Lamont Butler over/under points: Under 8.5 (-106)
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