The New Mexico State Aggies are set to face the Arkansas Razorbacks. Check out our March Madness odds series, which includes our New Mexico State Arkansas prediction, odds, and pick.
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The New Mexico State Aggies have won eight of the last 10 WAC Tournament championships, but in 2022, they went one step beyond making the Big Dance. They won an NCAA Tournament game, knocking off fifth-seeded UConn in Buffalo. Teddy Allen had the day of his life on the biggest stage. “Teddy Buckets” scored 37 points and rained down 3-pointers on the Huskies, who could not get the ball out of his hands and who also could not avoid fouling him and sending him to the free throw line. New Mexico State scored 70 points, which means Allen directly scored more than half of the Aggies' points. Allen also assisted on three baskets, which means he accounted for nearly 60 percent of every point scored by NMSU. This is something to watch for when making your New Mexico State Arkansas prediction. Arkansas obviously knows which player it has to contain on Saturday night.
Arkansas got a stiff test from Vermont as many people expected, but what had to concern Hogs coach Eric Musselman was how poorly his team handled late-game defensive pressure. Vermont might have been able to change the trajectory of the game if it had made more free throws down the stretch. Arkansas survived, and the Razorbacks get another chance to impose themselves on an opponent.
It is worth noting, as you think about a New Mexico State Arkansas pick, that Eric Musselman-coached teams have won a lot of close games in the NCAA Tournament. Musselman won close games at Nevada, he has won close games at Arkansas, and one thing about his teams is that when they go through a bad patch, they regularly respond. Arkansas hasn't dominated, but it is very resourceful. The obvious concern is that if Arkansas plays with fire too many times, it might finally get burned. Arkansas made the Elite Eight last season because it rallied from deficits in multiple games, but the Hogs might want to consider taking full control of games and not having to sweat them out in the final minutes. That would improve their March Madness odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the New Mexico State-Arkansas odds:
March Madness Odds: New Mexico State-Arkansas Odds
New Mexico State: +6.5 (-110)
Arkansas: -6.5 (-110)
Over: 138 (-106)
Under: 138 (-114)
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Why New Mexico State Could Cover the Spread
The Teddy Allen show against UConn gives New Mexico State a player who will demand Arkansas' full attention. If the Hogs try to double-team him, he can find teammates. If those teammates score, Arkansas has a problem.
Why Arkansas Could Cover the Spread
The Razorbacks did not play their best against Vermont, and their defense should be able to contain Teddy Allen.
Final New Mexico State-Arkansas Prediction & Pick
Arkansas will not let Teddy Allen go off. Hogs by 10.
Final New Mexico State-Arkansas Pick: Arkansas -6.5