In the first round of this year's NCAA Tournament, the #4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks will square off against the #13 seed Vermont Catamounts. For much of the history of this tournament, top four seeds were mostly safe in the first round. You could simply parlay the money line on a bunch and take home some easy cash. That is no longer the case. Last season, there were two 13-seeds that pulled off the upset, with Ohio beating Virginia and North Texas beating Purdue in overtime. We continue our March Madness odds series with a Vermont-Arkansas prediction, odds and pick.
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The Arkansas Razorbacks enter the NCAA Tournament playing some of their best basketball of the season. They won 15 of their final 18 games of the season. That includes victories against then #1 Auburn, #16 Tennessee and #6 Kentucky. It's pretty clear that this Arkansas team can play with anyone on any given night. They finished the season 25-8 overall and 13-5 in the SEC, which is very impressive considering how good the SEC has been this season.
Meanwhile, the Vermont Catamounts are nothing to sneeze at. They were completely dominant in the America East conference this year. They finished the season 17-1 in conference, capturing both the regular season and conference tournament championship. Overall, they were 28-5. Vermont might have been deserving of a higher seed than they received from the NCAA Committee.
Click here for the odds to the Arkansas-Vermont NCAA Tournament game, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Arkansas-Vermont Odds
Arkansas: -5 (-110)
Vermont: +5 (-110)
Over: 139 (-110)
Under: 139 (-110)
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Why Arkansas Could Cover the Spread
The Razorbacks have played one of the more difficult schedules in the nation. They have played up to that competition, going 4-1 against the top 25 this season. Guard JD Notae is one of the better two-way players in the country. He is averaging over 18 points per game, to go along with 4.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.2 steals per game.
He helps lead an efficient Arkansas attack. They average a shade under 77 points per game this season, ranking in the top 18 percent in the country. They are just as good on the glass, despite playing a three-guard lineup for most of the game, averaging over 38 rebounds per game. Overall, they are just a well-rounded basketball team that is also well coached.
The Razorbacks went 20-13 this season against the spread. So, they are used to covering.
Why Vermont Could Cover the Spread
The Vermont Catamounts are very dangerous. I believe that shows in the fact that they are only five-point underdogs despite being a #13 seed against a very good Arkansas team.
Similar to the Razorbacks, the Catamounts were very good at covering the spread this year. They finished 19-13 against the spread in 2021-2022. However, unlike Arkansas, Vermont is a very, very good shooting team. As a team, Vermont shot 49 percent from the field this season. Arkansas was on the lower end of the spectrum, connecting on only 44 percent of their shots.
Also unlike Arkansas, Vermont features two players that can take over a game at any time. Both Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu can post 25-plus point games on any night. Vermont is also a veteran club, which tends to make a difference come tournament time. All five Catamount starters are seniors.
Vermont also does a much better job taking care of the basketball. They only average 9.7 turnovers per game, which ranks seventh best in the entire country. When a game gets tight late, the ability to maintain possession if, let's say you are facing a press, goes a long way.
Their only weakness is on the glass. If they can hang around on the boards with Arkansas, they have a very good chance at pulling off an upset victory.
Final Arkansas-Vermont Prediction & Pick
As good as Arkansas is, this game is much more even than the seeding suggests. If anything, Vermont got a raw deal in drawing a #13 seed and having to play a team as good as Arkansas. This game should come down to the wire, leading me to take the Vermont Catamounts and the five points. Not only do I like Vermont to cover, but believe they are a very live dog in this matchup.
Final Pick: Vermont +5 (-110)
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