Bailey Falter heads to the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates as they face the Miami Marlins. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Pirates prediction and pick.
Marlins-Pirates Projected Starters
Jonathan Bermudez vs. Bailey Falter
Jonathan Bermudez (0-0) with a 4.79 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in 4.2 innings on the season.
Bailey Falter (7-7) with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP
Last Start: Falter went five innings, giving up seven hits, two walks, and a home run. He would allow three runs, but take the win over the Nationals.
2024 Home Splits: Falter is 4-3 at home in 12 starts this year. He has a 4.19 ERA and a .270 opponent batting average.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Pirates Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-137)
Moneyline: +154
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+114)
Moneyline: -184
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
How to Watch Marlins vs. Pirates
Time: 12:35 PM ET/ 9:35 AM PT
TV: BSFL/SNP
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins are 29th in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 17th in batting average, 29th in on-base percentage, and 25th in slugging. The leader of the offense is Jake Burger. He is hitting .242 on the year with a .298 on-base percentage. He has 25 home runs and 60 RBIs. Burger has 59 runs scored as well. Jesus Sanchez is hitting .251 on the year with a .308 on-base percentage. He has 17 home runs and 59 RBIs. Further, Sanchez has also stolen 13 bases and scored 50 times this year. Rounding out the best bats of the year is Otto Lopez. Lopez is hitting .256 this year with four home runs and 31 RBIs. He has stolen 16 bases and scored 37 times on the year.
Connor Norby has led the offense in the last week. He is hitting .310 in the last week with three home runs, eight RBIs, and four runs scored. Meanwhile, Otto Lopez has been solid this week as well. He is hitting .379 in the last week with a home run, five RBIs, and three runs scored. Rounding out the top bats this year is Nick Fortes. Fortes is hitting .350 in the last week with three RBIs and three runs scored. The Marlins are hitting .252 in the last week, with five home runs and 31 runs scored in seven games.
Current Marlins have just 13 career at-bats against Bailey Falter. They have three hits in that time. Jake Burger is 2-4 with a home run and four RBIs. Meanwhile, David Hensley is one for two with a double.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates are 18th in the majors in runs scored while sitting 23rd in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, and 26th in slugging. Bryan Reynolds leads the way. He is hitting .275 this year with a .342 on-base percentage. He has 22 home runs and 82 RBIs. Further, he has scored 67 times this year. Oneil Cruz has also been solid this year. He has a .269 batting average and a .326 on-base percentage on the year. Cruz has 19 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 64 runs scored. Rowdy Tellez rounds out the top bats of the year. He is hitting .252 this year with 13 home runs, 54 RBIs, and 38 runs scored.
Jared Triolo is driving in runs. He is hitting .250 in the last week with a home run, six RBIs, and three runs scored. Bryan Reynolds is not hitting well this week, but driving in runs. He is hitting .148 in the last week with five RBIs and two runs scored. Nick Gonzales is also hot this week. He is hitting .320 in the last week with four RBIs and four runs scored. The Pirates are hitting .224 in the last week, with six home runs and 33 runs scored in seven games.
Final Marlins-Pirates Prediction & Pick
Bailey Falter has struggled as of late. In his last five starts, he has given up 18 runs in 19.2 innings of work. Still, the Pirates are 3-2 in those games. In the last seven games, the two offensive units have been almost identical. Still, the Pirates do have the better offense and better pitcher overall. They get the win in this one.
Final Marlins-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pirates ML (-184)
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