The Miami Marlins (24-25) visit the Colorado Rockies (21-28) for Game 3 of their four-game series on Wednesday night. First pitch commences at 8:40 p.m. ET. Colorado took a 2-0 series lead thanks to their 5-4 win on Tuesday. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Rockies prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Marlins-Rockies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Rockies Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (-122)
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (+102)
Over: 11 (-102)
Under: 11 (-120)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Rockies
TV: Bally Sports, ATTSN Rocky Mountain
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET/ 5:40 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Marlins-Rockies LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 5-5 (Third in the NL East)
Run Line Record: 18-31 (37%)
Over Record: 20-27-2 (43%)
Regression may finally be hitting the Marlins after their unsustainable start to the season. Despite holding the worst run differential in the National League, Miami has hung around .500 for the year thanks to an incredible 15-3 record in one-run games. However, they have now lost four of their last five games including the first two of their series in Colorado. That said, Miami kept things within two runs in each of their last two losses and now sends their ace to the mound tonight. Consequently, the Marlins need their offense to hold up their end of the bargain if they want to cover as road favorites tonight.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara (1-5) makes his 10th start of the season for the Marlins tonight. After dominating last year to the tune of a 2.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, Alcantara has struggled mightily this season. Through nine starts he holds an ugly 5.05 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. While his strikeout numbers are actually up compared to last year (8.5 K.9), the righty has regressed in the walk department with a 3.2 K/BB. Additionally, he is coming off two of his worst starts of the year in consecutive losses to the Giants and Reds.
With 10 runs allowed over his last 13.1 innings, Alcantara has looked anything but sharp of late. That said, the Rockies don't scare anyone with their lineup despite a favorable home field. However, Alcantara needs to erase his most recent memories of Coors Field if he wants to find success tonight. In his last start in Colorado back in 2021, he lasted just 3.2 innings thanks to allowing 10 hits and 10 runs.
With Alcantara struggling to find his footing thus far in 2023, the Marlins need to find ways to generate runs. They rank in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS, isolated power, and walk rate despite holding a top-10 BABIP. That said, they have gotten a lot of production from their outfield in recent games. Over their last seven games, Jorge Solar collected 18 total bases thanks to three homers. In left field, Bryan De La Cruz has been scorching hot with a .385 average and 18 total bases.
Why The Rockies Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 5-5 (Fifth in the NL West)
Run Line Record: 23-26 (47%)
Over Record: 20-29 (41%)
Colorado still isn't likely a playoff contender but they've looked much improved this month. After a subpar 9-20 record through April, the Rockies have rebounded and hold a 12-8 record this month. Colorado can struggle on the mound but features the 15-highest scoring offense in the league. That said, probable starter Karl Kauffmann was rocked in his debut last week. Although things get easier tonight against Miami's last-ranked offense, the Rockies need to continue their hot stretch at the plate tonight if they want to cover as home underdogs.
Rookie Karl Kauffmann (0-1) makes the second start of his career tonight. Kauffmann received a warm welcome to the majors as he faced the Rangers' top-ranked offense in his debut. The Rangers rocked him for seven hits and four earned runs over 4.1 innings last week. The 25-year-old gets the opposite end of the spectrum in his second start tonight as the Marlins average the fewest runs per game in the majors. Still, he faces an uphill battle tonight after struggling mightily in his debut. That said, Miami has struggled mightily against righties this season – batting just .242 compared to .285 against lefties. Still, he likely needs some help from his offense tonight given his unfavorable home ballpark.
Colorado has gotten a ton of production from two key cogs in recent games. Outfielder Jurickson Profar holds a .409 average over their last five games and collected 12 bases in the process. However, catcher Elias Diaz is the name to watch. He ranks second in the majors with his .345 average but has been even hotter of late. Over their last five games, Dias holds a .450 average and collected 15 total bases.
Final Marlins-Rockies Prediction & Pick
Despite dropping the first two gams of the series, look for the Marlins to bounce back tonight with the reigning Cy Young winner on the bump.
Final Marlins-Rockies Prediction & Pick: Miami Marlins -1.5 (-122)
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