If you're under the age of 30, chances are Matt Ryan is one of the first players you think of when asked about the Atlanta Falcons. The former MVP led the NFL in pass attempts and completions last season. However, he's struggled over the past two years, suffering significant statistical regression from his Pro Bowl seasons. There's always a chance Ryan could right the ship in 2021, but the 36-year-old can only outrun Father Time for so long.
Ryan has unintentionally burned fantasy owners that took him in the first or second round two years in a row. Outside of abnormally large leagues, he'll likely see his average draft position plummet. Besides regression from age, fantasy football owners should fear how the Falcons quarterback will handle life without Julio Jones. The move away from Jones comes as the Falcons bring in a new coaching staff, led by former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
The Falcons are somewhere between being all-in on competing for a championship and rebuilding. Ryan's fantasy stock for 2021 paints that picture too since the Falcons only have half of a supporting cast around him.
2020 Fantasy Statistics
According to FantasyPros.com, Ryan finished second among quarterbacks in fantasy points in 2018 with 353.92. Only league MVP Patrick Mahomes scored more. The past two seasons haven't treated Ryan as kindly, although the Boston College product has performed consistently during that time. He amassed 281.34 points in 2019 and 293.44 in 2020, which ranked 11th and 12th among quarterbacks, respectively.
Ryan appeared in all 16 games for the Falcons last season as opposed to only 15 in 2019, which explains the difference in scoring between the two seasons. He averaged between 18 and 19 fantasy points per game in both campaigns.
A lack of touchdowns ultimately kept Ryan from creeping back into the top ten fantasy football quarterbacks last year. He threw 26 touchdowns (the same as 2019), which isn't a bad total by any means. However, 11 quarterbacks passed for more touchdowns than Ryan. Four other signal callers also threw 26 touchdowns, making the feat commonplace among the league's best passers.
Ultimately, Ryan finished the year averaging 18.34 points per game, which ranked 15th among all quarterbacks. He even fell behind Ben Roethlisberger, who had one of the lowest average depths of target in the NFL.
An in-depth look reveals that Ryan struggled when the Falcons collapsed off after their bye in Week 10. Atlanta only won one of its final seven games, and Ryan scored over 20 fantasy points in two of those matchups. That's not exactly a hot streak heading into the 2021 offseason. For reference, Ryan had four games with 20 or more points in Atlanta's first nine contests.
2021 Fantasy Projections
Ryan is still a good quarterback, but he's no longer a preferable fantasy option. His career is trending in the same direction as Atlanta's win totals, down. Fans can't rule out a quick turnaround in 2021, especially with rookie phenom Kyle Pitts in the picture, but Ryan's prime is getting further away in the rearview mirror. However, the veteran Falcons quarterback still offers value when drafted in an appropriate range.
Losing Jones hurts Atlanta's fantasy projections as a team. Even if he wasn't one hundred percent last year, the mere thought of the All-Pro sprinting downfield for a big play drew extra defensive coverage. With the future Hall of Famer gone, defenses can focus entirely on Calvin Ridley. The 26-year-old had a breakout campaign in 2020 and is on his way to challenging for a spot among the game's ten best receivers.
Ridley caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns last year. Walking into this season knowing he'll face double teams regularly is his most significant adjustment heading into 2021. Jones isn't there to give him some snaps isolated on the outside. As players like JuJu Smith-Schuster know, watching a Hall of Fame partner walk out the door can lead to a significant downturn in production.
Ridley is a better receiver than Smith-Schuster, but Ryan and the Falcons aren't sure how much he'll bring to the table in 2021. He could soar and revive Ryan's fantasy relevance or crumble under the pressure of double teams.
Pitts could turn into Ridley's new elite running mate and give Atlanta a new one-two punch. The rookie tight end is already viewed as a top ten player at his position. Draft analysts called him a generational prospect, but they were wrong. A tight end that physically gifted hasn't arrived in the NFL in at least two or three decades, much longer than the standard football “generation” at the pro level.
The Falcons have a pair of solid offensive linemen in Chris Lindstrom and Jake Matthews, but that's it. Kaleb McGary and rookies Drew Dalman and Jalen Mayfield still have a lot to prove. Atlanta's other starts don't move the needle. The troublesome offensive line led to Ryan getting sacked 40 or more times in each of the past three seasons. For context, he only took 40 sacks in a single season once in his first decade with the Falcons.
Running back Mike Davis and backup tight end Hayden Hurst are average players, but they don't boost Ryan's fantasy value.
History tells us that at worst Ryan will have 228 points in 2021, while his ceiling is likely between 280 and 300 points.
Rank at Position
Projecting Ryan's fantasy rank for 2021 is difficult because so much of the calculation relies on Pitts' performance. If the rookie has a Pro Bowl season, Ryan could easily maintain his grip as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. If Pitts struggles, Ryan could slide into the mid-teens. The Falcons are unpredictable, but their recent struggles could seep into how people evaluate Ryan's fantasy projection.
Let's look at the players that should fly off draft boards ahead of Ryan. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all easy selections that rank in or slightly below the elite tier of fantasy football quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray belong in that tier when healthy because of their rushing potential. Deshaun Watson would belong in that group during a normal season, but he's facing serious allegations and wants a trade from Houston.
Other quarterbacks with the potential to outpace Ryan include Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, Ryan Tannehill, and Matthew Stafford. If all of those quarterbacks finish ahead of Ryan, he'll rank 13th. However, players like Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Ben Roethlisberger, and run-heavy quarterback Jalen Hurts could jump Ryan. Jameis Winston could turn into a sneakily productive player too, especially considering the explosive plays he authored in the preseason so far.
By our count, Ryan could fall to 19th among fantasy football quarterbacks. That's not a terrible drop, but it's a downgrade from past years.
It's hard to count out anyone after the displays from Brady and Rodgers in their elder years. Ryan could recapture his fantasy football stardom in 2021, but the odds seem stacked against him.
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