If the Miami Heat are going to repeat as Eastern Conference champions, they'll need a monster season from second-year guard Tyler Herro.
The Kentucky product put together an impressive rookie season. He flashed an ability to fearlessly attack the rack, shoot off the dribble, stick outside jumpers, and play in isolation. Herro averaged 13.5 points per game while shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season. Across Miami's 21 playoff contests, Herro averaged 16.0 points per game while shooting 37.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Getting a player of this caliber with the 13th overall selection was highway robbery for Miami. Now they need him to become an alpha-dog scorer.
Miami has a roster that complements itself well with players who are go-to or capable scorers. Jimmy Butler is a two-way star; Bam Adebayo is athletic off the dribble and a superb passer; Goran Dragic is a well-rounded scorer; Kendrick Nunn is a gritty scorer; Duncan Robinson is an elite outside shooter.
That's great and all, but who's going to become Jimmy Butler's Robin?
Adebayo is a multi-faceted and highly productive frontline player. While an All-Star-caliber player, what's his room for growth from a production standpoint offensively?
Dragic is steady off the dribble, but the Heat re-signing the point guard to a two-year, $37 million deal is more about him being a secondary scorer and veteran leader than leading the scoring charge; he's 34, and their rotation includes a bevy of youngsters already holding down high-minute roles.
Like Herro, Dunn is a willing scorer, but he was phased out of the rotation in the playoffs partially due to his health, but then it became evident it was based on matchups. Nunn averaged just 15.9 minutes per game in the postseason, compared to the 29.3 minutes per game he averaged during the regular season.
Robinson is primarily a shooting threat, not someone who's going to do damage off the dribble; Andre Iguodala has become more of a defensive specialist; Precious Achiuwa is an impressive scorer but a rookie.
Last season the Heat were 15th in the NBA in points per game (112.0), 10th in field goal percentage (46.8 percent), and second in three-point shooting percentage (37.9 percent) in the regular season. They were a halfcourt offense that ambushed teams with their athleticism and outside shooting in both the regular season and postseason.
Defensively, the Heat were sixth in the NBA in opponent three-point shooting percentage (34.7 percent), seventh in opponent field goal percentage (44.8 percent), and 10th in opponent points per game (109.1) in the regular season. They were swarming bees out on the perimeter, and some of their premier players gave their covers a handful (Butler, Adebayo).
Head coach Erik Spoelstra has a deep rotation. There's a lot of players who bring different skill sets to the table, and what his team did last season was extraordinary. They swept the Indiana Pacers, dominated the Milwaukee Bucks, and gutted out the Boston Celtics while taking the Los Angeles Lakers to six games in the NBA Finals. They improved as the year went on.
Are they a given to continue the gradual growth from a win-loss perspective? They are not. Consider the competition in the East alone.
The Brooklyn Nets get a healthy Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving this season; Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks aren't going anywhere; the Celtics are a sturdy force; the Toronto Raptors are a fundamentally sound team; the Philadelphia 76ers created roster balance this offseason; the Washington Wizards acquired Russell Westbrook to pair with Bradley Beal; the Pacers are a competitive foe.
This is as good as the conference has been in quite some time, and that ups the paramount nature of Miami's core taking the next step this season.
If their core performs and produces at the same rate it did last season, they'll fall short of returning to the finals; last season has to be the baseline.
Herro oozes with confidence. Most contenders have a stellar scoring duo that plays in isolation and shoots efficiently. Contrary to league tendencies, Miami has Butler and a grouping of capable but not dominant scorers. Herro has the arsenal to change that.
He has to become more assertive, which can come with age. That means creating more separation, pushing the ball inside, and attempting less hero jump shots. In doing so, he'll create opportunity for others. A highly impactful Herro takes attention off Butler, Dragic, and Adebayo, making them less likely to be double-teamed.
No matter the developments, Butler will be the driving force of Spoelstra's offense this season. He's the player teams are game-planning for. If you have another prominent scorer in your rotation it makes it that much harder to game-plan for Miami. The Heat do a lot of things well; they merely need a second big-time scorer to step forward this season.
Tyler Herro has star potential. Miami just needs that potential to come into its own sooner rather than later.
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