The 2018 Draft will go down in history as one of the most talented classes to enter the league. You’ve got the likes of Luka Doncic and Trae Young, both generational talents, headlining this class. There’s also Deandre Ayton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jaren Jackson Jr. as some of the most notable players to be drafted in that class. Of the 60 players drafted last 2018, there are two names that weren't frontrunners to begin with, but have now solidified themselves as strong collections pieces among NBA card fans. These are Michael Porter Jr. and Collin Sexton.
Sexton was drafted by the Cavaliers using the eight pick. Scouting reports back then projected him to be a score-first guard, which Cleveland badly needed after the departure of LeBron James to the Lakers.
Porter Jr., on the other hand, slid down to the 14th spot where the Nuggets picked him. Originally seen as a top prospect, the forward from the University of Missouri took quite a tumble after suffering from a serious back injury, which also sidelined him during the 2018-19 season.
Sexton, now in his third-year in the league, is quite ahead of Porter Jr. in terms of experience and total minutes played on the court. The latter, meanwhile, offers a promising upside for Denver or any team interested in trading for the forward. Of the two, who is the better investment for card collectors?
The case for investing in Michael Porter Jr.
Porter Jr.’s main draw among card fans is his exciting upside as an elite scorer in the NBA. In essence, he makes full use of his guard-like skill set contained in a 6’10” frame. Combining those two elements allows Porter Jr. to score from anywhere on the court.
Take a look at his numbers and you’ll find proof that the Nuggets’ forward can indeed take over a game using his offense. Porter Jr. shoots 57% from two and 44% from the three-point arc in the 65 games he has played during his young career. He’s also shooting 83% from the free-throw line, which shows that his shooting mechanics are well-developed.
If Porter Jr. improves his game by taking his scoring average to another level or consistently creating plays for others, he will reach his ceiling as an elite offensive player. This is the same trajectory Kevin Durant took – a talented ball-handler with an elite size that can get a bucket from anywhere on the floor. This is a good sign for Porter Jr. and those who have invested in his rookie cards.
Why you should steer clear from Michael Porter Jr. rookie cards
The primary reason why fans shouldn’t invest in Porter Jr. is he won’t be a bona fide number one option as long as he’s playing with Nikola Jokic in Denver. The center’s impressive campaign this season, along with Jamal Murray serving as his number two, leaves little for Porter Jr. to work with.
This isn’t a good sign for Denver’s young wing and his cards. If he stays in a role that supports Jokic and Murray, instead of being the go-to guy of his own team, Porter Jr.’s card value will remain limited.
The case for investing in Collin Sexton
Fans of Collin Sexton can rest easy with the thought that he’s the Cavaliers’ number one option. This season alone, he’s averaging 24.3 points in 34.9 minutes per game. That’s quite a jump from Sexton’s rookie season, where he only averaged 16.7 points in 72 games.
Sexton’s role as the Cavaliers’ top dog is clearly showcased when they overcame the Nets last January 21. In that game, which featured Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and James Harden together for the first time, the third-year point guard dominated by scoring 42 points, including several clutch plays.
This game is a clear testament that Sexton is at the top of Cleveland’s pecking order, thanks to his impressive offense. As a result, his card value has nowhere to go but up if he continues playing this role for the Cavs.
Why you should steer clear from Collin Sexton rookie cards
To put it simply, Collin Sexton can score. He’s currently leading the Cavs in that regard through this season. That changes when you take the ball away from his hands.
Sexton does average 4.1 assists and a steal per game but he’s not contributing on the defensive end. As it stands, he’s the Cavaliers’ second-worst defender, with Darius Garland at first. He’s not even Cleveland’s most used player because Andre Drummond has a higher usage rate of 31.9% than Sexton’s 28.6
So how do these numbers affect Sexton’s value? If he fails to generate consistent offense for the Cavs, there’ll be no other way for him to impact the game. In turn, Sexton’s stock will fall because fans generally gravitate to players who can fill the stat sheets. With his greatest strength gone, so too will his value in the card market.
The Verdict?
Putting up Porter Jr.’s immense upside as a scorer against Sexton’s clear-cut role as Cleveland’s number one guy and you’ll see where the domino falls. As it stands, the latter has more pull among card fans because of his electrifying ability to take over games and get the win for his team. It feels weird saying this now, but Sexton seems like a more sure thing than Porter Jr., outweighing the latter's immense upside.
This can change if Porter Jr. assumes a role, in Denver or potentially in another team, where he can be the alpha. But as long as he’s behind Jokic and Murray, the better investment, for now, will be Sexton.
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