The Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros kick off the ALDS on Thursday afternoon. The Astros look to win an ALDS series for a fifth straight year, while the White Sox attempt to win their first playoff series since 2005. Let's continue our MLB odds series and make a White Sox-Astros prediction and pick.
Houston finished the regular season at 95-67 and was 51-30 at home. If you put $100 on every single Astros regular season game, you’d be down $97 on the moneyline.
Chicago closed the season at 93-69 and was 40-41 on the road. If you put $100 on every single White Sox regular season game game, you’d be down $379 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the White Sox-Astros odds for Game 1 of the ALDS.
ALDS Game 1: White Sox-Astros Odds
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Chicago White Sox ML (+115)
Houston Astros ML (-125)
Over 8 Runs (-105)
Why The White Sox Could Win This Game
After debating whether to start Lucas Giolito or Lance Lynn in their first postseason game of the year, the White Sox have decided to hand the ball to Lynn.
Lynn produced a solid season for the Sox, posting a 2.69 ERA while pitching 157 innings. The righty has been an effective innings eater, pitching five innings or more in 24 of his 28 starts and allowing more than three earned runs in only four of his starts.
The former Ranger has been excellent at two things this season: limiting the home run and working himself out of trouble.
Lynn allowed 18 homers this year, good for a very low HR/9 rate of 1.03. In 17 of his 28 starts, Lynn didn't allow a single long ball. This is massively important against a deep Astros lineup that boasts multiple power threats and hit the ninth most homers in the league.
Additionally, Lynn posted a LOB% of 81.5%, stranding a little more than four out of five men who actually managed to reach base against him. It's clear Lynn has a different gear for when traffic on the basepaths heats up, and considering the Astros have the highest OBP in the league, this should come in to play early. The veteran has shown the ability to handle high-stress innings effectively, and he'll almost certainly be asked to do so on Thursday.
At the plate, the Sox will have to deal with Astros ace Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers has plus stuff, but he almost always gives up at least a little damage.
In 28 starts, McCullers has allowed multiple runs in 18 of them. In comparison, Lynn allowed multiple runs in only nine of his 28 starts. The Astros righty has exited a start with no runs given up only four times all year.
Another stat that should encourage White Sox bettors is how shaky McCullers control has been of late. In his last seven starts, McCullers has walked 20 batters over 41.2 innings. He walked four batters in three of those outings.
If McCullers doesn't have a good feel for his breaking ball, the White Sox could wait him out. Chicago is fourth in the league in walks drawn, and has the ability to draw out at-bats. If he's not sharp, this could be a short outing for the Astros righty, and it's unlikely he exits with no damage done.
Why The Astros Could Win This Game
The one time the Astros ran in to Lance Lynn this season, it did not go well for the White Sox ace.
Lynn pitched only four innings in Minute Maid Park and allowed eight hits and six earned runs. He was already at 84 pitches when he exited the ball game.
This is exactly what one of the best offenses in baseball has done all year: Grind down starters with long at-bats, and strike as soon as they make a mistake. Just consider what the Astros did to opposing starters in their last regular season series of the year.
Paul Blackburn needed 54 pitches to get through two innings, and allowed six earned runs. Sean Manaea needed 103 pitches to get through 5.2 innings. Cole Irvin got through six innings with 84 pitches, but still allowed four earned runs. One way or the other, the Astros are going to get your starter if they go deep enough.
Lynn is a guy that can pitch deep in to a ball game, but it's very unlikely he gets far without some serious damage being tacked on by an Astros offense that scored 23 runs in their final three game series of the year. When you consider the fact that Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, and Jose Altuve are batting a combined .387 in 65 at-bats against Lynn, it's hard to see the Sox starter going anything more than two times through the order.
On the mound, the Astros have one of their best strikeout pitchers going against a White Sox lineup that struggles to lay off balls outside of the zone. Lance McCullers thrives off getting guys to chase breaking balls, and Chicago should be happy to oblige.
Of the numerous dangerous White Sox bats, most have an above average chase rate of balls outside the zone. Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, and Eloy Jimenez have all struggled with movement. Every single one of them has a chase rate above 32%, when the league average sits at 28.3%.
The White Sox are dangerous when they connect with the ball and are top ten in the league in slugging percentage. However, it's a difficult task to square up a crafty McCullers. Chicago might get one or two runs on mistake pitches, but it's hard to see them putting together multiple crooked number innings.
Final White Sox-Astros Prediction & Pick
In the battle of Lance's, Lynn might have the better stats, but McCullers has the better matchup. Against a White Sox team that thrives off the fast ball, McCullers curveball could be the equalizer in Game 1. The Astros offense should have no problem barreling a few of Lynn's fast balls and it's unlikely the Sox starter escapes without at least three runs crossing the plate. Take the Astros and McCullers to pull away in Game 1 and take the series lead.
FINAL WHITE SOX-ASTROS PREDICTION: HOUSTON ASTROS ML (-125)
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