One of the most exciting events of the All-Star break is upon us. The 2021 Home Run Derby will take place on Monday night at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. The derby pool features some of the league's best power hitters that will slug it out at one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. Shohei Ohtani, Joey Gallo, and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story are just three names that pop out when you look at this year's contestants. They will all be looking up to defending champion Pete Alonso, who hopes to repeat after winning the last Home Run Derby back in 2019. It's time to make a Home Run Derby prediction and pick
Here is how the odds are shaping up:
Home Run Derby – Odds to Win
Shohei Ohtani (+200)
Joey Gallo (+375)
Pete Alonso (+550)
Matt Olson (+600)
Trevor Story (+900)
Juan Soto (+1000)
Salvador Perez (+1000)
Trey Mancini (+1200)
Home Run Derby – Most Home Runs in Round 1
I am very confident that at least one of these contestants will hit at least 25 home runs in the first round of the Home Run Derby. In the last Derby back in 2019, four players hit at least 25 homers in a round. Ronald Acuna Jr. hit 25 and Vlad Guerrero Jr. hit 29 home runs. Joc Pederson hit 39 in the second round and Guerrero hit a whopping 40 home runs in the final round. With the power bats at the top of this year's competition, at least one should be able to get going early on.
Final Pick: Over 24.5 HRs (-125)
Home Run Derby – Longest Home Run of Round 1
I am actually going to go with the favorite to hit the longest home run of the first round. Shohei Ohtani (+190) has been a monster of late and has hit the longest home run of anyone in this field during the first half of the season. The Angels two-way superstar hit a 470-foot home run back on June 8th against the Kansas City Royals. He also had the hardest-hit home run as well with a 117.2 mph rocket on June 28th against the New York Yankees. Long story short, this guy has the most power in the Derby and should connect on at least one 500-footer in the first round.
Final Pick: Shohei Ohtani (+190)
Home Run Derby – League Winner
The American League is heavy favorites because of the fact that Shohei Ohtani and Joey Gallo have the best odds to win the competition. Ohtani most certainly deserves to be the betting favorite and don't sleep on the enormous power of Joey Gallo either. The American League also has two more contestants than the National League this year, which adds to their likelihood of taking home the crown. Despite the probability of one of these guys winning, I am going to side with the National League.
For starters, Pete Alonso is the defending champion and will be representing the National League in the Home Run Derby on Monday night. With young sluggers Trevor Story and Juan Soto slugging alongside the Mets' first baseman, I like their chances of at least reaching the Finals. Story will have a home crowd behind him, Soto can go to all fields, and Alonso is a proven champion on this stage. Take the value with the National League in this spot.
Final Pick: National League (+160)
Home Run Derby – Champion
This is one of the most exciting and entertaining events of the All-Star Break because of the fireworks it brings and the uncertainty of it all. Many will side with Ohtani to win the event because of his recent surge and his enormous power. Although it would come as no surprise to see him win, I am not going to pick him for one main reason. Angels hitting coach Jeremy Reed told ESPN's Buster Olney that Ohtani hasn't taken batting practice once this season. The lack of BP clearly hasn't affected him on the field, but the uncertainty lies around his stamina in a high-paced event like this.
I am going to make two picks here. My ultimate favorite is defending champion Pete Alonso, who is a savvy power hitter with a favorable first-round matchup and a desire to repeat. He is a proven champion in this event and has the tools to pull it off again. If not him, I am going to follow a recent trend and pick a heavy underdog in Trevor Story. Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper won at Nationals Park in 2018 and Reds third baseman Todd Frazier won at Great American Ballpark in 2015. The fan-favorite in Denver has the power to win this competition and has the fan support to pull off the improbable.
Final Picks: Pete Alonso (+550), Trevor Story (+900)
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