The Houston Astros travel to the Bay Area to take on the San Francisco Giants in their stadium for the first time in three years on Friday evening. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Astros-Giants prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 64-38 and is 33-16 at home. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $2,153 on the money line.
Houston currently stands at 63-40 and is only 29-20 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Astros game so far this season, you’d be up $665 on the money line.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Astros-Giants odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Giants Odds
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Houston Astros ML (+102)
San Francisco Giants ML (-112)
Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
Why The Astros Could Win This Game
Houston has won six of the last seven matchups in three years.
The Astros find themselves in a slightly unfamiliar spot on Friday: They've been tabbed as underdogs for only the 20th time this season.
Houston has been the favorite to win for over 80% of their games. However, they've fared pretty well in the few times they've been underdogs, holding a record of 11-8 in those situations. The Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound tonight looking to improve that record.
The hard-throwing lefty has been excellent for the Astros all season, pitching to a 6-2 record and a 2.97 ERA. He is a particularly good matchup against a Giants team that relies heavily on the walk and the homer.
Valdez has been excellent against some of the best offensive teams. He's pitched five times against teams that rank in the top ten in OPS: twice against the Red Sox, twice against the White Sox, and once against the Padres. In those outings, Valdez has thrown 31.2 innings, allowed only 10 earned runs, struck out 31 batters, and given up only four home runs.
The Giants rank fourth in OPS, but Valdez has shown he has the stuff to keep their bats quiet with a nasty sinker that keeps the ball on the ground and in the yard.
The Houston bats are tasked with getting to Kevin Gausman. Gausman has been good, but has looked shaky of late. This is mostly due to his loss of accuracy.
After pitching 12 straight games with two or less walks, the righty has gone wild. In four of his last five games, Gausman has walked 3 or more batters, including a five walk game against the Dodgers.
The Astros might not display as much patience at the dish as the Dodgers do, but they have a deep lineup capable of working counts and creating traffic on the basepaths. Gausman is in deep trouble tonight if he can't regain his control.
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
The Giants continue to shock baseball fans with the effectiveness of their starting pitching and bullpen depth.
Gausman has been a key piece to the equation, sporting a 2.21 ERA in 20 starts. When Gausman takes the mound, the Giants are a sparkling 13-7.
Even if the righty isn't as sharp as we saw him at the start of the season, he has one of the strongest bullpens in baseball behind him. In the Giants last four games, their ‘pen has pitched 15.2 innings and allowed only four earned runs. All four of those runs were allowed by John Brebbia over two innings.
Essentially, Jose Alvarez, Jarlin Garcia, Tyler Rogers, and Jake McGee have all been lights out. As long as Gausman lasts five innings and hands over the ball with the lead, the Giants odds of winning this game skyrocket. Considering he's lasted less than five innings only three times in 20 starts, it's a good bet Gausman will get there. The only question is whether the Giants will lead.
This is where the Giants bats come in. San Francisco has been good against lefty pitchers of late, winning the last three games against left-handed starters. They've also shown the ability to win without the home run, something Framber Valdez rarely gives up.
San Francisco has hit the third most home runs in the league, but also draws the fifth most walks. In his last three starts, Valdez has walked 14 batters. The Giants will either wait him out until the fourth ball comes, or find a quality pitch to deposit in the Crawford Boxes. Expect them to create just as much traffic as the Astros do on the basepaths.
Final Astros-Giants Prediction & Pick
There's a good reason why this game is marked with essentially coin flip odds, and I have a feeling this comes down to a one or two run decision. Neither team really has the draw for me to back them, but the total is attractive. Gausman hasn't looked elite in his last two starts, and I think the trend continues against the Astros. However, the Giants and their patient offense should be able to tack on a few runs off Valdez to keep this interesting. The total should creep over to around eight or nine runs, so tonight's wager should be on the over.
FINAL ASTROS-GIANTS PREDICTION & PICK: OVER 7.5 RUNS (-115)
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