The Houston Astros take on the Oakland Athletics. Check out our MLB odds series for our Astros Athletics prediction and pick.
Jake Odorizzi goes to the mound for the Astros, while Cole Irvin takes the hill for the Athletics.
Jake Odorizzi has a 4.04 ERA, but that really doesn't mean much in the larger scheme of things. Odorizzi got injured in a game against the Boston Red Sox on May 16. He returned to the Houston rotation on July 4 and did not pitch well against the Kansas City Royals, giving up five runs in four innings. Odorizzi was rusty and out of rhythm. Very simply, we get to find out in this game if Odorizzi can get his rhythm back and contribute to a team which can use the extra source of innings to relieve pressure on other starters and the Houston bullpen. If Odorizzi can't contain a light-hitting Oakland lineup after being smashed by a weak-hitting Royals batting order, that will be a definite sign of concern for the team heading into the All-Star break.
Cole Irvin has a 3.35 ERA. For a pitcher with an ERA that low, one might think his overall record would be good, but Irvin is 3-6 in nine decisions this year. On the good side, at least Irvin finally won a game this past week. On July 4, the A's won for the first time in a game started by Irvin since April 24. Irvin has been on the wrong end of a number of 3-1 and 3-2 games (or close to those scores) this year. Oakland has not given him much run support. Irvin has been solid this season, so he knew that if he was going to grab a win, he probably needed to dominate an opponent. He did that in the July 4 win over Toronto, limiting the Blue Jays to one run and four hits in eight strong innings.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Athletics MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Athletics Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-102)
Oakland Athletics: +1.5 (-118)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
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Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
The Astros have been as good as the New York Yankees over the past four weeks, losing only five games and blowing away the rest of the American League West. If you look at the larger reality of Major League Baseball this season, the Astros have established themselves as one of the five best teams in the sport, alongside the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Braves. The Astros and Yankees are so far ahead of the rest of the American League that it would be shocking at this point if Houston and the Bronx Bombers did not meet in the American League Championship Series. This is an excellent team which lost a very weird game on Saturday, one in which the A's drove in only one run on a 20-foot tapper in front of home plate in which Houston catcher Martin Maldonado failed to make a tag at the dish. Houston is going to hit better in this game, and the Astros are simply not going to allow themselves to lose a series to the A's.
Why The Athletics Could Cover the Spread
The pitching matchup of Jake Odorizzi versus Cole Irvin tilts in Oakland's favor, at least when you consider that Irvin has been steadily good this season while Odorizzi — who is capable of pitching well — is coming off his injury and is clearly not back to the strength and sharpness he can potentially display. Houston has the better hitters, but Oakland's pitching matchup is a real and profound advantage for the A's in the rubber match of this three-game weekend series. Oakland just won a series from the Blue Jays. The A's could win another series against a team with a winning record.
Final Astros-Athletics Prediction & Pick
The pitching matchup is worth noting. This is not a layup for the Astros. However, it's very hard to see them not bouncing back from a weird loss on Saturday. They'll prevail and win the series.
Final Astros-Athletics Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
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