The Houston Astros take on the Cleveland Guardians. Check out our MLB odds series for our Astros Guardians prediction and pick.
Framber Valdez goes to the hill for the Astros, while Hunter Gaddis gets the call for the Guardians.
Framber Valdez has a 2.80 ERA. He is not a dominant pitcher, but he is a supremely consistent pitcher. He doesn't smother opponents the way teammate Justin Verlander does. Valdez won't win this year's Cy Young vote. Verlander is the favorite for the award and a clearly better pitcher. Yet, it's easy to overlook Valdez because while he gives up two or three runs in a lot of starts — 11 times this season, with two months left to go — he very rarely gives up four or more runs. He has allowed four or more runs only twice this year. If you limit your research to four earned runs in particular, Valdez has allowed at least four earned runs only once in 2022, on April 19 against the Angels. That's it. Valdez is amazingly consistent at limiting damage, pitching out of trouble, and making sure opponents don't get the big inning. His ERA in April was 3.15. In May, 2.30. In June, 2.81. In July, 3.21. So many pitchers — most, in fact — have significant swings from one month to the next, at least if we define a “significant swing” by a change of at least one run if not more. Valdez's month-to-month ERAs have been within a range of 0.91 runs. Very few pitchers can claim that they have an ERA under three runs and a variance of under one run in all four monthly ERAs from April through July. Consistent quality is the name of the game for Framber Valdez.
Hunter Gaddis will make his major-league debut for Cleveland in this game. He is a big boy at 6-foot-6, 260 pounds. He started 14 games for Double-A Akron, turning in a 4.24 ERA with 102 strikeouts in 76 1/3 innings. He went to Triple-A Columbus in late July and, in two starts, posted a 2.70 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings. Opponents hit .176 against him. Noteworthy, in light of a player making his big-league debut, is the fact that on Thursday night in the majors, while Cleveland was playing Houston, another pitcher made his big-league debut. Cole Ragans started for Texas and pitched five solid innings to help the Rangers beat the White Sox. The debutante won in his first outing. The Guardians are hoping for the same magic here. Of course, the Astros are a lot more dependable than the White Sox. Still: Don't write off Cleveland just because a first-timer is on the mound.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Guardians MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Guardians Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-142)
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (+118)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
They have a very strong pitcher going up against a kid making his MLB debut. The Astros are a much better team than the Guardians. Houston lost two of three to the Red Sox earlier this week and got caught drifting through its season. The Astros were focused in a sharp performance on Thursday and should be able to carry that into Friday against the Guardians, who have not been able to get to five games over .500 in recent weeks. Just when it seems the Guardians are making a run at the Minnesota Twins in the A.L. Central, they get knocked back a peg. They're just not that good a team.
Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread
After seeing one big-league rookie (Cole Ragans of the Rangers) win his debut against an A.L. Central opponent on Thursday, the Guardians are going to tell Hunter Gaddis that he has a great chance to win against the Astros. Houston is prone to some hitting slumps. Astro hitters have never seen Gaddis before. This could work out a lot better for Cleveland than many expect.
Final Astros-Guardians Prediction & Pick
If you want to ride with the rookie, that's your choice. It's really hard to pick against the Astros in general, but also against the proven consistency of Framber Valdez.
Final Astros-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
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