MLB odds: Astros vs. Mariners prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/27/2021
This is a huge series for both teams. The Mariners are desperately trying to close the gap with the Astros, trailing the AL West lead by only six games after Monday night’s victory. Houston knows that this series is a great opportunity to essentially bury Seattle’s playoff hopes by extending its lead in the division. With this being a crucial couple of games for both teams, expect to see great baseball from both sides.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday night’s game.
MLB Odds: Astros-Mariners Odds
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Houston Astros ML (-156)
Seattle Mariners ML (+144)
Over 8 runs (-115)
Under 8 runs (-105)
Why The Astros Could Win
Houston has a case for being the most well-rounded team in MLB. Their offense ranks inside the top five in the league in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. The Astros are the only team in the league that can say that, so it’s safe to say they are baseball’s best offense. Houston’s pitching staff is similarly successful, ranking inside the top 10 in ERA, batting average allowed, and WHIP. Any team that sports these stats is going to be insanely difficult to beat.
The Astros will send out Lance McCullers to start in this contest. McCullers has had a huge hand in making the Houston pitching staff as successful as it is, as he owns a 3.04 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Both are numbers that should improve after McCullers faces one of the worst offenses in the MLB.
The Mariners are ranked in the bottom five in every major batting statistic. They actually rank last in batting average and OBP. Seven of their projected starters for Tuesday night’s game also own a strikeout rate of 24.2% or higher. An average strikeout rate is 20%, so McCullers should be able to take full advantage of this statistic, especially since his strikeout percentage is an excellent 27.8%.
Why The Mariners Could Win
Seattle definitely isn’t winning off the strength of its offense, which leaves the job up to the pitching staff. Luckily for the Mariners, Chris Flexen has drawn the start for this important matchup.
Flexen has been pretty good all season long, but his numbers from his last seven starts are insane. Over that span, he has pitched to the tune of a 1.60 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. He’s also only allowing a 6.3% barrel percentage, which is an impressive number. The righty has great control of his stuff, proven by his 5.2% walk rate. Flexen has already faced Houston once this season, pitching six innings of one-run baseball. If the Mariners are going to pull off this upset, they’ll need an elite pitching performance. Flexen is the perfect pitcher to try to pull that off.
Final Astros-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The under is certainly a tempting pick here, but it’s not often you see the Astros favored by as little as -156. Houston was upset by a late comeback on Monday night, but this elite squad won’t drop two games in a row to Seattle. The Astros should win a fairly close game to even the series score.
FINAL PICK: Houston Astros ML (-156)