The Oakland Athletics take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Athletics Mariners prediction and pick.
Frankie Montas goes to the mound for the Athletics, while Robbie Ray takes the rubber for the Mariners.
Frankie Montas has a 3.20 ERA. He posted a 4.25 ERA in April but then delivered a 2.31 ERA in May and a 3.19 ERA in June. What is staggering about his season is that even though he has allowed more than three earned runs in only one of his last nine starts, the A's are 1-8 in those nine starts. This shows how bad Oakland is on defense and at the plate. Montas has gotten very little run support, as shown in his most recent start against the Yankees on June 28. Montas allowed two runs to the powerful Yanks in six strong innings, but his team lost, 2-1. Montas is definitely a trade target for contending teams, so he has every incentive to pitch well as the All-Star break approaches.
Robbie Ray did not look anything like a Cy Young Award-winning pitcher in the first two months of the season. The former Toronto Blue Jay was supposed to be the ace of the Seattle staff, but through the first week of June, he had a bloated 4.97 ERA. He lacked command. He didn't pitch out of jams very well. He gave up the big hit in a key turning-point situation. Ray needed to regroup, and everyone wondered if his Cy Young season was a fluke.
Starting with a game on June 12 versus the Red Sox, everything changed.
Ray has allowed just two runs in his last 27 innings pitched, covering four straight starts. He has allowed just 11 hits in those 27 innings. He has not given up a home run. This is the pitcher the Mariners thought they were getting. Let's see if he can continue to dominate.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Athletics-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Athletics-Mariners Odds
Oakland Athletics: +1.5 (-176)
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 7 (+100)
Under: 7 (-122)
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Why The Athletics Could Cover the Spread
The A's have contained Seattle's bats each of the past two days, limiting the Mariners to a combined three runs in two games. Now Frankie Montas, the Athletics' best starting pitcher, gets a crack at the M's. He should be able to do really well. He is coming off a strong six-inning stint against the Yankees in which he held the Bronx Bombers to two runs. Montas could be a trade deadline piece for a contender, so even though he is saddled with a bad team, he is going to give it everything he has. Moreover, Oakland has an improbably bad record in Montas' starts this year. The laws of averages are bound to even out.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
After the first two months of the season, Robbie Ray looked like a complete bust. In the past four starts of the season, Ray looked like a Cy Young Award winner. This is the guy the M's thought they were getting from the Blue Jays. Ray is now avoiding the big inning, avoiding the big hit in the key situation which ruins a game. Against the A's, Ray should be able to dominate once again and give Montas another really rough hard-luck loss. Montas no-hit the Mariners for 7 2/3 innings in late June, but the M's scored twice late to win. Seattle was down 1-0 heading into the eighth on Saturday and came back to win. Seattle has Oakland's number, having won 18 of the last 21 between these two teams.
Final Athletics-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The Mariners are more likely to win than not, but the best play here is the under, with two light-hitting teams and two ace-level pitchers going at it.
Final Athletics-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Under 7
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