The Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees will face off in the final matchup of a four-game series on Thursday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Blue Jays-Yankees prediction and pick.
The Blue Jays have taken control of this crucial series. Toronto won the first three, pulling them within 1.5 games of the last wild card spot in the American League. The Yankees have fallen the opposite way, losing the home-field advantage in the wild card race to the Boston Red Sox. The Blue Jays will look to complete the sweep in this incredibly important series and get themselves a half-game out of the last wild card seed.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds for Thursday’s game.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Yankees Odds
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Toronto Blue Jays ML (+105)
New York Yankees ML (-115)
Over 9 runs (+105)
Under 9 runs (-125)
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
Toronto is one of the best offensive teams in baseball, and they have the statistics to prove it. They rank inside the top five in the league in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. To make things even better for the Blue Jays, they’re on an incredible hot streak. Toronto’s team batting average in the month of September is a whopping .291, and they’ve scored more than four runs in each of their last seven games. The Blue Jays have an argument for being the best offense in the MLB, and they present a difficult challenge for any pitcher that faces them.
The Blue Jays will entrust Thursday’s start to deadline addition Jose Berrios. Berrios has been fantastic this season, posting a 3.55 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP on the year. Helping Berrios in this matchup is the fact that the Yankees struggle tremendously against right-handed pitching. New York’s team batting average drops from .252 against lefties to .229 against righties, with all of their other major batting stats experiencing a similar nosedive. This is a good matchup for Berrios, so it’s fair to expect another strong performance.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
New York will send out pitcher Nestor Cortes to make the start in this one. Earlier in the year, this would’ve meant that this was a bullpen game, but Cortes has shown that he’s a legitimate starter with a couple of impressive performances. He has a chance to put together another impressive performance against this Toronto team that he has a couple of statistical edges on. The Blue Jays don’t like to face left-handed pitching, as they see all of their major batting stats worsen against southpaws. Toronto is also much worse offensively when they play on the road, earning a lower batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS than when they play at home. Cortes has a legitimate shot at putting forth a quality start against one of the best offenses in baseball.
These Yankees hitters haven’t faced Berrios this year, but some of New York’s projected starters will be happy to see him. Four hitters in the Yankees’ lineup are hitting .333 or above against Berrios throughout their careers. Helping the rest of the lineup is the fact that the righty is slightly worse on the road than he is at home. Berrios sees his ERA, WHIP, and opponent’s batting average all rise when he plays away from his home turf. Yankee Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the MLB, and that should certainly play a factor in this one.
Final Blue Jays-Yankees Prediction & Pick
This game should be close, but it’s likely that Toronto is able to carry their momentum into the series finale. The Blue Jays have the offensive advantage and a slight pitching edge, but the books have them as underdogs. This is a perfect spot to pick an upset because it shouldn’t be considered an upset at all. Lock in the Blue Jays.
FINAL PICK: Toronto Blue Jays ML (+105)
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