The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will continue a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Braves-Phillies prediction and pick.
Atlanta opened the series with a huge 7-2 victory over the Phillies on Thursday. The Phillies and Braves are both four games back of the Mets in the NL East entering play. Atlanta has had the edge in the head-to-head series lately as they've won four of their last six games against Philadelphia to date.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Braves-Phillies odds.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
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Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-157)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+137)
Over 7.5 Runs (-106)
Under 7.5 Runs (-114)
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
The Atlanta Braves have been showing signs of life over the past few weeks. Their offense is beginning to come alive despite key absences of Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna. Reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman has returned to form, which has catapulted this club to another level of late. They've scored at least four runs in eight of their last 10 games including a seven run performance in Thursday's victory. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season as they're two games under .500 and 3-8 in their last 11 games at Citizens Bank Park.
Atlanta will turn to left-hander Max Fried for the second game of this crucial series. Fried has been solid for the Braves with a 7-5 record and 4.29 ERA through 15 starts. He has been improving as the season has gone on and seems to have returned to his 2020 form. The southpaw has a 5-2 record and 3.51 ERA over his last seven starts. The Braves starter will look to build on his last start that saw him toss seven innings of scoreless ball against the Tampa Bay Rays. Fried is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA through four career starts at Citizens Bank Park.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Philadelphia Phillies were roaring their way up the NL East standings before dropping their third-straight game on Thursday. The Phillies are now 2-4 over their last six games thanks to their struggling pitching staff that has allowed at least six runs in each of their last three contests. Philadelphia is tied with Atlanta for second place in the division and needs to use this home series to gain ground. The Phillies are nine games over .500 at Citizens Bank Park and 8-3 in their last 11 home games against the Braves. Their offense has been clicking as they've scored at least four runs in eight of their last 10 games coming in.
Philadelphia will turn to right-hander Zack Wheeler as they look to even the series. Wheeler has been dominant this season with a 7-5 record and 2.44 ERA through 19 starts. The Phillies ace has struck out a whopping 152 batters and has a 0.99 WHIP through 125.2 innings of work. We saw this coming last year as the Phillies starter went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA through 11 starts during the shortened season. Wheeler is in the midst of a career year and will look to bounce back from two-straight four-run outings against the Cubs and Marlins.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
I'm picking the Phillies to bounce back with a big win on Friday night. I don't trust the Braves consistency with their lack of depth right now and the Phillies have been dependable at home this season. Max Fried has really struggled in road starts and will have a tough test against a surging lineup. Zack Wheeler, on the other hand, has dominated at home with a 2.16 ERA through 11 starts. Philadelphia knows the importance of these games at home and must capitalize against a depleted and struggling Braves bunch.
FINAL PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-154)
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