The Los Angeles Dodgers continue their home stand by beginning a new series against the Atlanta Braves. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Braves-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Los Angeles currently stands at 82-49 and is 43-23 at home. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $494 on the moneyline.
Atlanta currently stands at 70-59 and is 37-27 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Braves game so far this season, you’d be down $89 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Braves-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Braves-Dodgers Odds
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Atlanta Braves ML (+188)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-205)
Over 9 Runs (+105)
Under 9 Runs (-125)
Why The Braves Could Win This Game
The Braves are the one of only three teams in MLB with a better road record than home record. For whatever reason, Atlanta has looked significantly better away from home, playing to an impressive 17-2 on the run line in their last 19 road games.
After a rough start to the season, Drew Smyly has looked significantly better. In three months, Smyly has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start. More importantly for Monday's matchup, he has cut down on his walk and home run rate.
In his first 18 starts, Smyly allowed a walk every 2.7o innings. In his last four starts, Smyly has cut those numbers down to a walk every 4.7 innings in the month of August.
In terms of homers, Smyly was burned in his last outing. However, it was a day game at Camden Yards, a ballpark where the ball notoriously flies out of the yard. Prior to that start, Smyly had only allowed five home runs in 38 2/3 innings.
Additionally, the top of this Dodgers lineup hasn't been effective against Smyly. Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, and Max Muncy are a combined 5-for-23 off Smyly. Considering the Dodgers' offense has been cold of late (they managed only seven runs against a poor Colorado Rockies pitching staff in a three-game series), it's not crazy to think Smyly could navigate this lineup a few times successfully.
At the plate, the Braves broke out Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, scoring nine runs. Atlanta's best hope of repeating the feat is to get Urias off the mound early.
The good news for Atlanta is that Urias hasn't been as precise as we're used to seeing him of late. He walked at least two batters in all three of his last outings and hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in August.
Run up Urias' pitch count and the Dodgers will be forced to turn to a beleaguered bullpen that pitched 13 1/3 innings in their last two games.
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
After a disappointing series with the Colorado Rockies, the Dodgers turn to one of their most consistent arms in Julio Urias to get them back on track. In 25 starts this year, Urias holds an impressive 3.17 ERA, and the Dodgers have won all four of his starts in August.
Since July, the lefty has been the picture of consistency. He has pitched at least five innings in all nine starts in this span and allowed one or less earned runs in seven of those starts.
Urias has been particularly good at limiting the home run of late. He has now pitched 25 1/3 innings without allowing a single homer and has only allowed three bombs over his last 51 1/3 innings. This will be particularly important against a Braves lineup that has hit the third-most home runs in the league.
Look for Urias to deliver a similar performance to the last time he matched up with the Braves: five innings of work and only one earned run allowed.
Facing Urias is a much more hittable pitcher in Drew Smyly.
Smyly is about as consistent as Urias. The problem for the Braves is that he's consistently mediocre. Smyly completed four or more innings in each of his last 10 starts, but he allowed two or more earned in seven of those appearances.
There are two major red flags for Smyly against a potent Dodgers lineup: He allows plenty of home runs, and he doesn't give his team distance.
Smyly allowed three home runs in his last outing and has now allowed eight home runs in his last 43 1/3 innings. This Dodgers lineup is loaded with home run threats, and they've hit the fifth-most homers in the league. We could see some fireworks from them in this one.
Additionally, Smyly hasn't completed five innings in eight of his 22 starts. He hasn't pitched past the sixth inning all year. This means we're likely to get a heavy dose of an Atlanta bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both ERA and WHIP.
Even if they don't get to Smyly, the Dodgers could tack on runs late against a shaky Braves bullpen.
Final Braves-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
While the Dodgers do have an advantage in the starting pitching category, their struggles against left-handers make it impossible to back them against a lefty who has been solid of late. The Braves have a great chance at keeping this game close, especially considering this game should probably be a low-scoring affair. The Braves have cashed the under in four out their last five road games, and the Dodgers have cashed it in five of their last six matchups. Because of this, I'd split half a unit on each bet. Take a flier on the Braves to at least cover in a close matchup, and count on runs being at a premium.
FINAL BRAVES-DODGERS PREDICTION & PICK: UNDER 9 RUNS (-125) and ATLANTA BRAVES +1.5 (-112)
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