The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon in San Francisco. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Braves-Giants prediction and pick, laid out below.
The Atlanta Braves are in an absolute dog fight with the New York Mets, with their 88-54 record putting them just half a game behind New York for the lead in the NL East. Atlanta owns a convincing lead in the NL Wild Card, but over the last month or so has surged back into serious contention for the division.
San Francisco can no longer win the NL West, officially. Well, unofficially, this team has had no shot at the playoffs most of the summer. The team owns a 68-74 record, third place in the NL West, and ten games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, all but sealing their fate.
Here are the Braves-Giants MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Giants Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+134)
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-162)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Atlanta will send Charlie Morton to the mound this afternoon, attempting to take the series. Morton is 8-5 with a 4.08 ERA and 180 strikeouts in 152.1 innings across 27 starts. Morton has been great in his last 15 starts, with a 3.03 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 92 innings across that stretch. Long known for his high-spin curveball, Morton has thrown the Uncle Charlie nearly 40 percent of the time, holding batters to a .163 batting average against the pitch. Of Morton's 180 strikeouts, 104 have come on the curveball. Morton has struck out 28.3 percent of the batters he has faced, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Atlanta's bullpen is one of the better groups in the league, ranking fifth with a 3.19 ERA, striking out 552 batters in 482.2 innings. Lefty AJ Minter has enjoyed the best season of his career, with a 2.10 ERA in 60 innings, striking out 83 batters. Minter throws roughly 50 percent fastballs, holding batters to an abysmal .144 batting average against the offering. A 35.8 percent strikeout rate puts Minter in the 98th percentile in the league. Collin McHugh has impressed, with a 2.79 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 61.1 innings. Batters have hit below .150 combined against McHugh's slider and curveball.
Atlanta's offense is paced by Austin Riley, who leads the team with 36 home runs, adding 36 doubles and 90 RBIs. Riley also ranks second with a .280 batting average. A strong 2022 on the heels of a breakout 2021 has cemented Riley as the team's third baseman of the future, with a 10-year extension reached last month. Matt Olson has helped to ease the pain of losing Freddie Freeman. Olson has hit 28 home runs and leads the team with 41 doubles, 91 RBIs, and 68 walks. Olson hits the ball harder than almost everyone in the league, tied for ninth in the league with an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph. Of course, this stellar offense has come with Olson's typically elite defense as well.
Dansby Swanson leads the team with a .284 batting average, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 17 bases. Swanson has turned himself into an elite shortstop defender as he is worth 18 outs above average at the position. Michael Harris has impressed in his 95 games, with a .313 batting average, 18 home runs, and 16 stolen bases. Ronald Acuna, Jr. is back from an early season injury, leading the team with 28 stolen bases and adding 11 home runs in 103 games. Atlanta ranks second in the league with 215 home runs.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
San Francisco will send their best to the mound in Carlos Rodon. Rodon parlayed a great 2021 season into a lucrative contract with San Francisco this offseason and has easily lived up to the money. Rodon has gone 12-8 with a 2.93 ERA and 212 strikeouts in 162.2 innings. The hard-throwing lefty has an impressive 32.5 percent strikeout rate, which ranks in the 93rd percentile in the league. Rodon's success has not been enough to elevate this club to contender status, but no doubt the team is glad to have signed him. San Francisco's bullpen struggles can be highlighted by Zack Littell and Gabe Kapler's slight dustup on Monday. Still, young closer Camilo Doval has the fans excited for the future, as the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 2.58 ERA with 22 saves in 59 appearances. Doval's slider has baffled batters, with a .167 batting average coming against the pitch.
The offense has been the main issue for San Francisco this season, thanks in part to injuries to some key contributors. Joc Pederson has been a good pickup, leading the team with 22 home runs and is second with 63 RBIs. Wilmer Flores, fresh off a new extension, is second with 18 home runs and leads the team with 65 RBIs. Thairo Estrada, receiving the most playing time of his career, leads the team with 18 stolen bases, adding 13 home runs and 20 doubles. Mike Yastrzemski leads the team with 27 doubles and 56 walks, adding 12 home runs. Joey Bart has rebounded from his brutal start to the season, hitting .286 across his last 30 games to raise his season average to .230, with 11 home runs in 81 games.
Final Braves-Giants Prediction & Pick
This should be a very good pitching matchup, but Atlanta just has too much offensive firepower.
Final Braves-Giants Prediction & Pick: Atlanta -1.5 (+134), under 7.5 (-122)
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