The Atlanta Braves will travel to the great state of Ohio to take on the Cincinnati Reds for the first game of a four-game series. Both teams are within striking distance of the top spot in their respective divisions, making this series a big one. Neither squad can afford to continue losing, so Thursday's game should be a competitive one. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Braves-Reds prediction and pick.
Before that, let's see how the Vegas bookmakers have set the lines for this game.
MLB Odds: Braves-Reds Odds
Atlanta Braves ML (+112)
Cincinnati Reds ML (-122)
Over 10 1/2 runs (-125)
Under 10 1/2 runs ( +105)
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
The Braves have the good luck to be facing Reds starter Tony Santillan. Santillan isn't a terrible pitcher, just extremely inexperienced. He has only started two games in his entire career, neither of which produced great results. He has struggled with his control, which bodes well for a Braves team that ranks in the top 10 in walks drawn.
Santillan has also never worked past the fourth inning, which means the much-maligned Reds bullpen will be up for a big workload. That has been a recipe for an offensive explosion for much of this year, and I wouldn't expect anything different in this one.
The Braves' offense also showed some signs of improvement in the last two games while missing one of their best players in Wednesday's matchup against the New York Mets. Ronald Acuna Jr. is questionable for Thursday, and his return would surely help spark an Atlanta lineup that needs to get in rhythm.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
If Tony Santillan taking the hill didn't inspire much faith in Cincinnati, the Atlanta pitching situation will make up for it.
The Braves plan to deploy reliever Jesse Chavez as a starter in what will be a bullpen game. Chavez has not pitched in a game in 2021, and he finished with an ERA of 6.88 to go along with a WHIP of 1.59 in 2020. There is no reason to have any sort of faith in the Braves' pitching situation right now. The Atlanta bullpen has been horrendous pretty much all season, so this is another situation I would expect to end with plenty of runs.
To make matters worse for Atlanta, the Reds have been swinging the bat well recently. Over their last five games, Cincinnati plated 24 runs. First baseman Joey Votto is also expected to return from his suspension and take his usual spot in the starting nine.
Cincinnati has also been a significantly better offensive team at home. They average more hits, runs and walks at home than on the road. The lineup looks to be in prime position to put up huge numbers against a bullpen that has been one of the MLB's worst.
Final Braves-Reds Prediction & Pick
When the Braves are pitching a bullpen game featuring a starter who hasn't played in the year 2021, the pick has to go against them. The Reds have the advantage in every category and should put up whopping numbers on the Atlanta relievers. I also considered taking the over here, but I think the Reds have a higher chance of taking home a win. However, the over should hit as well.
FINAL PICK: Cincinnati Reds ML (-122)
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