The Milwaukee Brewers will clash with the St. Louis Cardinals for the third match of a four-game series on Saturday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Brewers-Cardinals prediction and pick.
The Cardinals defeated the Brewers 4-2 on Friday. Paul Goldschmidt broke the scoreless tie in the bottom of the third when he smashed a two-run home run to left field. It was his ninth homer in 2022, and it gave the Cardinals a 2-0 lead. St. Louis added two more later to take a 4-0 lead into the ninth. Then, Keston Hiura shattered the shutout attempt when he clobbered a two-run bomb to left field. It was his fourth in 2022 and cut the deficit to 4-2 Cardinals.
Ryan Helsley entered the game to close it out for the Cardinals. Next, he struck out Mike Brosseau and forced a groundout by Kolten Wong to seal the game. The Brewers are 29-17 and in first in the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 25-20 and trail them by three and a half games in the division.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Cardinals odds:
MLB odds: Brewers-Cardinals Odds
Brewers: -1.5 (+155)
Cardinals: -1.5 (-188)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
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Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
The Brewers played slightly better against the Cardinals on the road in 2021, compiling a 4-5 record compared to 4-6 at home. So far, they have split the first two games at Busch. They will send Adrian Houser to the hill today. Houser is 3-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 2022. He allowed one earned run on three hits with four strikeouts and three walks through six innings in his last start. Ultimately, Houser took the no-decision as the Cardinals lost 3-2 to the San Diego Padres. He will look to continue his recent string of success, where he has allowed one earned run or less in his last two starts. Additionally, he has allowed one earned run or less in four of eight starts.
Houser has issues with control at times. He walked three in his last start and has given eight batters free bases over his last three starts. Now, he looks to curb the walks significantly and hopes his offense can pick him up. The heart of the lineup must produce today, as the three core hitters all struggled. Christian Yelich went 0 for 2 with two walks. Also, Andrew McCutchen went 0 for 4 while Rowdy Tellez also went 0 for 4. The Brewers must perform better against St. Louis pitching. Additionally, they have to drive runners home, as they left eight ducks on the pond.
The Brewers will cover the spread if they can get a solid performance out of Houser. Likewise, Milwaukee covers if the offense delivers. The Brewers have scored three or fewer runs in three of their past six games. Thus, those numbers are not enough for a win in most scenarios.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinals have dominated the Brewers in the past and aim to do it again. They have split six games in 2022 and will try and take the lead today. Today, St. Louis will go with rookie Matthew Liberatore. He is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA. Liberatore made the first start of his career last week against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it did not go well for him. Moreover, he was shaky. Liberatore tossed 4 2/3 innings, allowing four earned runs on seven hits with three strikeouts and two walks. Ultimately, he took the no-decision in that outing. Liberatore will look for better results and has an offense that has done the little things offensively.
The Cardinals rank fifth in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, and sixth in runs. However, the Cardinals are a middle-of-the-road home run team, as they rank 16th in the long ball. St. Louis tends to perform the simple things offensively, moving players from station to station. Additionally, they have Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman in their lineup. Arenado has a .278 batting average with nine home runs and 32 RBIs. Meanwhile, Edman has a 2.81 batting average with four home runs and 21 RBIs. Both went hitless on Friday and will look to rebound today.
The Cardinals will cover the spread if Liberatore can give them a longer outing. Ideally, he needs to limit his pitch count and work ahead. The Cardinals also need to get to Houser early to prevent him from getting into a groove. Likewise, it will require Arenado and Edman executing in the lineup to set up other hitters to produce runs.
Final Brewers-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The game might be another thriller. However, it is still hard to trust a rookie facing a veteran lineup. The Brewers do not beat the Cardinals often, but they have the edge here. Expect the Brewers to win and cover the spread.
Final Brewers-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Brewers: -1.5 (+155)
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