The Milwaukee Brewers will try and earn a series split as they face the St. Louis Cardinals in the finale of a four-game series. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Brewers-Cardinals prediction and pick.
The Cardinals pounded the Brewers 8-3 on Saturday. Nolan Gorman started things off in the first inning by decimating a 2-2 pitch into the stands in deep right field for a homer. It was his first career major league home run and gave the Cardinals a 1-0 lead. Later, Gorman struck again with an RBI single to make it 2-0. Paul Goldschmidt wanted in on the fun, so he smacked a 2-1 pitch to deep right-center for a three-run bomb to give the Cardinals a 5-0 lead. It was his 10th in 2022. Then, Gorman struck once more, plopping an RBI double, giving the Cards a 7-0 lead. Goldschmidt followed with an RBI single to make it 8-0.
The Brewers delivered two late home runs but otherwise could not threaten the Cardinals. Matthew Liberatore got his first career win, tossing five shutout innings, allowing just two hits. Alternatively, Adrian Houser struggled, going four innings and allowing eight runs, five earned. The Cardinals cut the Brewers division lead to two-and-a-half games in the NL Central.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Cardinals MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Brewers-Cardinals Odds
Brewers: -1.5 (+125)
Cardinals: -1.5 (-150)
Over: 7 (-122)
Under: 7 (-100)
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Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers will send Corbin Burnes to the hill. Burnes is 2-2 with a 2.18 ERA in 2022. However, he has a career 2-3 record with a 3.89 ERA against the Cardinals. Burnes will have to throw out his best stuff to beat the Cards. He was near his best in his last start, as he allowed one earned run on five hits while striking out five through six innings. Now, Burnes looks to replicate that effort against a Cardinals team that has gotten the better of him in most appearances.
The offense needs to step up desperately. The three runs they scored yesterday came after they already trailed by eight runs. Additionally, they left seven runners on base. Hunter Renfroe has been on the injured list since last week, and the rest of the lineup has not played inspiring baseball. Andrew McCutchen is batting .241, and Christian Yelich has the same average. Only one player in their normal starting lineup is hitting above .270. However, the Brewers are third in the majors in home runs. Rowdy Tellez is the definition of “boom or bust” as he is batting .240 but clubbing nine home runs, which puts him on an approximate pace of 30 home runs for the season. Also, Willy Adames is hitting .208 and has hit nine home runs. Milwaukee misses Renfroe dearly, as he had nine home runs before his injury.
The Brewers will cover the spread if they can get a quality start out of Burnes. After Houser's horrific start, the Brewers need their best pitcher to perform like their best pitcher. Ideally, the Brewers would love him to go six innings and allow two or fewer runs. Milwaukee needs to find its offense and score early to put the pressure on St. Louis.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinals have dominated this series in retrospect. Miles Mikolas has performed admirably against the Brewers, compiling a 6-2 career record with a 3.63 ERA in 10 appearances. He is 3-2 with a 1.96 ERA in 2022, showcasing how good he can be. Burnes tossed 6 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs on four hits and five strikeouts. Also, he has gone at least six innings in two straight starts and four of the last five starts. Mikolas is the textbook definition of a frontline starter and making a case for himself as the ace of the rotation.
Goldschmidt leads a Cardinals offense that is fifth in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, fifth in runs, and 10th in slugging percentage. He is batting .355 with 10 home runs and 40 RBIs. Additionally, he has walked 20 times and also scored 29 runs. Goldschmidt is making a case for a possible MVP award with his spectacular play. Nolan Arenado has been consistent, hitting .271 with nine home runs and 32 RBIs.
The Cardinals will cover the spread if Mikolas gives them another excellent performance. Also, they cover if the offense springs to life for the second game in a row and puts Milwaukee on its heels.
Final Brewers-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
It should be a spectacular pitching matchup. While the Brewers struggled yesterday and have struggled recently, they are still a great team. Burnes is the best pitcher on the Brewers and will end the misery. Expect this to be a close game until the end when the Brewers pull away.
Final Brewers-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+125)
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