The Milwaukee Brewers take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our Brewers Giants prediction and pick.
Jason Alexander gets the ball for the Brewers, while Logan Webb takes the bump for the Giants.
Jason Alexander’s ERA was 2.16 on June 12. He made his first start of the year with the Brewers on June 1 and made a positive impression in his first three starts, pitching 16 2/3 innings and giving up just four earned runs.
Then hitters began to accumulate more tape of him and were able to adjust. Alexander’s ERA has steadily risen over the course of a series of difficult outings. His ERA now stands at 4.73. It’s not hard to see that hitters have figured him out. Alexander plainly needs to adjust. The Giants are a relatively light-hitting team, but even they figure to get to Alexander unless he has a change of plan and an improvement in execution which can rescue him.
Logan Webb’s past month of pitching has been the exact opposite of Alexander’s. Whereas Alexander started to decline in the second week of June, Webb began to improve. Webb carried a 3.77 ERA for the season into a June 14 start against the Royals. He shut out Kansas City in seven innings and followed that game with four more strong performances to lower his ERA to 2.82. In his last six starts, Webb has allowed five earned runs in 40 innings of work. Three of those five earned runs came in his one rocky start over the past month, a 5-3 loss to the White Sox on July 2. Webb has allowed no more than one run in five of his last six starts. He is definitely heading in the right direction as the Giants try to overtake the Cardinals and Phillies in a tight race for the final National League wild card spot behind the Braves and Padres.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Giants Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-172)
San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+142)
Over: 7.5 (-108)
Under: 7.5 (-112)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
The Brewers have really messed around in this series. They could have won all three games and should have won at least two of them, but instead, they have won only one of the first three installments of this four-game set. They don’t have the advantage in this pitching matchup, but after taking a couple of tough losses, the Brewers are going to be highly motivated. Logan Webb has been good this season, but not the dominant force he was for portions of the Giants’ amazing 2021 season. The Brewers can definitely get to Webb, and if they do, they’ll likely cover.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
After winning two very tough ballgames, the Giants have won six of eight to put themselves back in a decent position in the National League wild card race. You’re seeing San Francisco win the kinds of games it won so regularly last year. Clutch late-inning home runs (Friday), timely late-inning plays (Saturday), a strong bullpen, big comebacks (Wednesday against the Diamondbacks, Friday against the Brewers) — the Giants look a lot more like themselves right now. They have Logan Webb on the hill against Jason Alexander, a pitching matchup they should dominate. This game is all set up for the Giants to win.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick
If Logan Webb versus Jason Alexander in San Francisco isn’t a winning pick for the Giants, I don’t know what is. Take San Francisco here.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick: Giants -1.5
Follow Us
Subscribe
