The New York Mets will host the Milwaukee Brewers for a three-game series at Citi Field set to begin on Monday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Mets prediction and pick.
Milwaukee has been red-hot of late with wins in 11 of their last 12 games coming in. They have improved their record to 51-34 on the season and now sit seven games over the Reds in the NL Central. New York has struggled lately and although they won two out of three against the Yankees over the weekend, they have lost six of their last 10 games to date. The Mets are in a tight race in the NL East as three teams are within five games of them.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Brewers-Mets odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Mets Odds
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+129)
New York Mets +1.5 (-149)
Over 7 Runs (-124)
Under 7 Runs (+104)
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Milwaukee Brewers are on one of those runs where it seems that they can do no wrong. They’ve been just as productive on the road as they have at home with a 25-16 record. Milwaukee got off to a slow start this season and now looks like one of the best teams in all of baseball. Their 11-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday, but the Brew Crew has been raking with at least five runs scored in eight of their last 10 games.
The Brewers offense is now averaging 4.41 runs and although that number seems low, it has drastically improved over the past few weeks. Their lineup is finally starting to regain its health and if this is what they’ll look like at full strength, the rest of the league is in serious trouble. Milwaukee allows just 3.44 runs per game and possesses a +0.95 run differential in road games this season.
Milwaukee will turn to right-hander Brandon Woodruff for the series opener. Woodruff has delivered Cy Young caliber numbers with a 7-3 record and 1.87 ERA through 16 starts. His strikeout numbers are off the charts as the right-hander has punched out 119 batters through 101 innings of work. Woodruff has won five of his last seven starts and has allowed just two earned runs over his last 13 innings.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The New York Mets have been a tale of two stories this season as they’ve been incredible at home and horrible on the road. New York is currently 43-37 on the season thanks to their 24-11 record at Citi Field. The Mets took two out of three against the Yankees this weekend thanks to an uncharacteristic performance from their lineup.
The Mets have also been a tale of two stories in regards to their offensive and defensive production. New York is averaging just 3.69 runs per game, which is second-to-last in the majors. They have allowed just 3.63 runs per game, which is the second-best mark in the bigs. The Mets +0.06 run differential is by far the worst among first-place teams. Their success at home is all thanks to the fact that they allow just 2.17 runs at Citi Field.
New York will turn to right-hander Tylor Megill for the series opener. Megill has had a mediocre start to his season with a 4.82 ERA through his first two starts. The 25-year-old starter has faced the Braves in both starts and has allowed five earned runs through 9.1 innings of work. He struck out eight batters over five innings in his most recent start and will look to bring that swing-and-miss ability into this start against a red-hot lineup.
Final Brewers-Mets Prediction & Pick
It is impossible to predict anything other than a Milwaukee Brewers victory with the way that they are playing right now. Milwaukee is the hottest team in baseball and although they struggled to get anything going on Sunday, I expect them to bounce back against a young starter in New York. The Mets are coming off of a double-header on Sunday, which certainly won’t help this awful lineup. Brandon Woodruff will be the ultimate difference-maker as he should have no problem neutralizing the Mets in the series opener.
FINAL PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-130)
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