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MLB Odds: Brewers vs. Rays prediction, odds and pick – 6/28/2022

The Milwaukee Brewers will take on the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Rays prediction and pick.

 

The Brewers have had a bit of a crazy season. They started the year as well as anyone could ask, taking a massive lead in the NL Central behind a team that was firing on all cylinders. They then proceeded to lose ten of eleven straight contests, handing the division lead to the St. Louis Cardinals. A recent stretch of good play has boosted the Brewers back into first place, but only by a half-game. They desperately need to keep winning if they want to remain competitive in their division.

The Rays have been winning all year, but they have the misfortune of playing in the AL East. Tampa Bay is 40-32, but that’s only good for third place in their division. They’re a whopping 13 games out of first place, so losing more ground would essentially doom them. This two-game set is huge for both teams, so let’s get straight into the pick.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Rays MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Brewers-Rays Odds

Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+176)

Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-215)

Over: 7 (-110)

Under: 7 (-110)

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Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread

Milwaukee will count on Brandon Woodruff to start this game. Woodruff hasn’t been great this year, but he’s picked things up in his recent appearances. Over his last seven starts, the righty has put up a 4.11 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Over his last three contests, Woodruff has pitched 15 innings and only allowed four runs. He may not be the best pitcher in the league, but he’s given the Brewers solid pitching over his recent outings, and it’s fair to expect more of the same in this game.

The Rays don’t have the privilege of sending a veteran pitcher to the mound here. Shane Baz will make his seventh career start in this game and his fourth start of the season. He’s been solid, but it’s hard to count on such a young player to consistently pitch well, especially when he’s facing a decent Milwaukee offense.

Why The Rays Could Cover the Spread

While Baz is young, it’s hard to discount his work so far. His last time out, he pitched 4.2 innings against the New York Yankees and only allowed a single run. The Yankees are one of the best offenses in baseball, and Baz handled them perfectly. He also doesn’t have to pitch well for long given the strength of Tampa Bay’s bullpen. The Rays have shown the willingness to pull Baz after four or five solid innings of work, making it much more likely that Tampa Bay as a whole puts together a good pitching performance.

The Rays will benefit hugely from playing on their home field. Tampa Bay has been elite at home, earning a 25-15 record in Tropicana Field, and a 15-17 record anywhere else. They also earn a better OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage when they play at home. The Brewers have similar splits, as almost every single one of their offensive numbers get worse when they play on the road. Lastly, Woodruff has been absolutely abysmal on the road. He owns a road ERA of 8.14 while allowing opposing hitters to hit a whopping .314 against him.

Final Brewers-Rays Prediction & Pick

This is a fairly simple pick. The over should cash comfortably, as Woodruff will likely get destroyed while Baz and the Tampa Bay bullpen give up their fair share of runs.

Final Brewers-Rays Prediction & Pick: Over: 7 (-110)